China’s September Credit Growth Beats Forecasts, Fueled by Bond Surge
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In the first three quarters, China’s total social financing reached 30.09 trillion yuan, according to the People’s Bank of China
China’s credit growth beat expectations in September, fueled by a surge in government bond issuance, even as new bank lending undershot forecasts.
Total social financing — a broad measure of credit that includes bank loans, bonds, and off-balance-sheet financing — climbed to 3.53 trillion yuan ($495 billion) last month, topping the 3.29 trillion-yuan median forecast in a Caixin survey of 16 economists, according to the People’s Bank of China. However, new yuan-denominated loans totaled just 1.29 trillion yuan, trailing the 1.45 trillion-yuan average forecast.
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- China’s total social financing rose to 3.53 trillion yuan ($495B) in September 2025, exceeding forecasts, primarily due to higher government bond issuance.
- New bank loans lagged at 1.29 trillion yuan, while bond financing rose, making up 43.3% of total social financing versus 48.3% for yuan loans.
- Medium- and long-term manufacturing loans grew 8.2% year-over-year; M1 money supply increased 7.2%, indicating stronger economic activity.
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