China’s ‘New Three’ Exports Jump as Consumer Goods Falter
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Electric vehicles are seen docked at the automobile terminal of Shanghai Port. Photo: VCG
Exports of China’s “new three” high-tech products surged in September, with both volume and value growing and helping to push the country’s overall export growth beyond market expectations.
Combined exports of lithium-ion batteries, solar cells and electric vehicles (EVs) jumped 39.6% year-on-year to $16.5 billion in September, according to data released Saturday by the General Administration of Customs. For the first nine months of the year, their total export value rose 19.1% to $126.9 billion.
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- China’s “new three” exports (lithium-ion batteries, solar cells, EVs) rose 39.6% YoY to $16.5 billion in September; nine-month total reached $126.9 billion, up 19.1%.
- Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) exports in September surged 304.1% by volume and 191.2% by value; pure EV export growth slowed due to EU tariffs.
- Traditional consumer goods exports fell, while analysts expect export momentum to weaken in Q4 due to higher bases and trade barriers.
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Who’s Who
- Huachuang Securities
- Huachuang Securities analysts attributed the better-than-expected export figures in September to a low comparative base from the previous year and signs of improving external demand. However, their outlook for the fourth quarter appears to be cautious.
- Nomura
- Analysts at Nomura predicted a slowdown in the outlook for the fourth quarter. This prediction is attributed to a higher base effect and rising global trade barriers.
- Guotai Junan Futures
- Guotai Junan Futures warned that China's export momentum might face pressure due to the front-loading of shipments to North America earlier in the year and potential new tariffs on Chinese goods transshipped through Mexico. This suggests a cautious outlook for future export performance.
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What Happened When
- September 2024：
- Exports of China’s 'new three' high-tech products (lithium-ion batteries, solar cells, and electric vehicles) surged 39.6% year-on-year to $16.5 billion.
- September 2024：
- China's overall exports rose 8.3%, exceeding forecasts.
- September 2024：
- Pure electric vehicle exports rose 24.1% to 191,000 units; export value increased 5.8% to $3.2 billion.
- September 2024：
- PHEV exports surged 304.1% year-on-year to 99,000 units; value increased 191.2% to $1.9 billion.
- September 2024：
- Solar cell exports: shipments increased 141.2% to 1.3 billion units and value rose 39% to $2.8 billion.
- September 2024：
- Lithium-ion battery exports: value climbed 34% to $7.1 billion.
- September 2024：
- Exports of luggage, apparel, shoes, hats, and toys fell by 12.3%, 8%, 13.2%, 3.6%, and 28% year-on-year, respectively.
- September 2024：
- Home appliance exports fell 9.6% by value.
- By September 2024：
- Combined export value of the 'new three' for the first nine months of 2024 rose 19.1% to $126.9 billion.
- By September 2024：
- Pure electric vehicles accounted for less than 60% of total EV shipments in the first nine months of 2024.
- By September 2024：
- PHEV shipments for the first nine months of 2024 more than tripled to 670,000 units.
- As of October 19, 2024：
- Data about September 2024 exports was released by the General Administration of Customs.
AI generated, for reference only
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