Cover Story: Trade War Deepens as U.S. and China Open New Fronts at Sea and in Silicon
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In the weeks leading up to the APEC summit in South Korea, a new chapter has opened up in U.S.–China rivalry — this time far from the negotiating tables but deep inside the ports, shipyards and customs offices that keep global trade moving.
What began in early autumn as a cautious thaw between Washington and Beijing — marked by cordial trade talks in Madrid and a phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump — has quickly unraveled. Within weeks, both sides have cast aside diplomatic restraint, rolling out a barrage of targeted trade restrictions that signal a sharp return to confrontation.
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- U.S.–China trade tensions escalated in late 2025, with both countries imposing new export controls, tariffs, and sanctions on critical goods such as rare earths, lithium batteries, and advanced technology.
- Both nations accelerated efforts for self-reliance: China increased controls on strategic minerals while boosting domestic semiconductor capacity, and the U.S. invested heavily in critical mineral production and advanced manufacturing.
- Multinational firms face heightened regulatory and market risks, while both Chinese and U.S. businesses adapt by diversifying supply chains and shifting export markets amid ongoing decoupling.
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Explore the story in 3 minutes
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[para. 81] In summary, the U.S.–China rivalry has shifted into an era of strategic endurance and economic disentanglement. Both sides are emphasizing resilience, technological self-reliance, and diversified supply chains—a trend rolling over multinationals and remapping global trade.[para. 88] The focus now is less on “winning” and more on enduring a protracted contest.
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Who’s Who
- Wingtech Technology Co. Ltd.
- Wingtech Technology Co. Ltd. is a Chinese chipmaker. Its Dutch subsidiary, Nexperia, had its global operations frozen by the Dutch government due to governance concerns, citing risks to European technologies. Wingtech accused the Dutch government of geopolitical overreach. Wingtech's acting president stated they anticipated this "50% rule" and have been reinforcing their domestic supply chains.
- Critical Metals Corp.
- Following China's rare earth countermeasures, Critical Metals Corp.'s shares surged by 54.5% between October 9 and 15, 2025. This rise occurred during a period where investors bet on strategic mineral companies after increased U.S.-China trade tensions. The U.S. Export-Import Bank also committed $120 million to Critical Metals in June 2025 to develop the Tanbreez rare earth mine in Greenland.
- United States Antimony Corp.
- United States Antimony Corp. is a U.S. strategic mineral company whose shares surged about 25% between October 9 and 15. This occurred after China's rare earth countermeasures, indicating investor interest in U.S. strategic mineral companies during escalating trade tensions.
- Cambricon Technologies Corp. Ltd.
- Cambricon Technologies Corp. Ltd. is a Chinese AI chipmaker. Its stock soared 258% year-to-date, making it one of the year's hottest "domestic substitution" stocks. This surge occurred after China implemented rare earth countermeasures, leading to increased investor interest in homegrown solutions.
- Wanliyan
- Wanliyan is a Shenzhen-based startup and a subsidiary of Shenzhen SiCarrier Technologies Co. Ltd., an AI chipmaker. Wanliyan recently unveiled a 90-gigahertz real-time oscilloscope, an electronic testing instrument vital for developing AI chips, 6G communications, and optical networking. This development signifies China's progress in specialized technology areas despite U.S. export restrictions.
- Shenzhen SiCarrier Technologies Co. Ltd.
- Shenzhen SiCarrier Technologies Co. Ltd. is a state-owned semiconductor equipment firm based in Shenzhen, China. Its subsidiary, Wanliyan, recently unveiled a 90-gigahertz real-time oscilloscope. This development is significant as oscilloscopes are crucial electronic testing instruments for AI chips and 6G communications, a field previously dominated by U.S. and German companies.
- Naura Technology Group Co. Ltd.
- Naura Technology Group Co. Ltd. is China's largest front-end toolmaker in the semiconductor industry. It shipped over 1,000 units each of its etch, vertical furnace, and PVD systems in the first half of 2025. The company entered the ion implantation market through an acquisition and operates across multiple strategic nodes. By mid-2025, it ranked seventh globally among semiconductor equipment vendors with $2.2 billion in revenue.
- Kingsemi Co. Ltd.
- Kingsemi Co. Ltd. is a Chinese chip equipment maker that was acquired by Naura Technology Group Co. Ltd. in March. This acquisition allowed Naura to enter the ion implantation market and expand its operations across multiple strategic nodes in semiconductor manufacturing.
- NioCorp Developments Ltd.
- NioCorp Developments Ltd. received a $10 million grant from the Pentagon under the Defense Production Act, aimed at supporting its efforts to build a scandium-to-alloy supply chain. Additionally, the company is in line for a potential $800 million debt facility from the U.S. Export-Import Bank.
- Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co.
- Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co. is an American company operating in Idaho. In September, it raised $75 million to modernize its site, historically a major silver-antimony producer. The goal is to transform it into an integrated hub for silver, antimony, copper, gallium, and germanium, bolstering the U.S. critical minerals supply chain efforts.
- JP Morgan Chase & Co.
- JP Morgan Chase & Co. announced a $1.5 trillion "security and resilience initiative" to fund domestic manufacturing in energy, aerospace, and strategic materials. At least $10 billion of this initiative will be allocated towards equity and venture investments in key minerals and defense technologies. This announcement was made on October 13.
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What Happened When
- August 2022：
- U.S. Commerce Department adds EDA software for 3nm GAAFET chip design to control list.
- Late 2024：
- U.S. adds 140 Chinese companies to Entity List and restricts multi-die packaging software.
- 2025：
- Washington expands 'Entity List' sanctions to subsidiaries of blacklisted Chinese firms; FCC revokes certification for Chinese telecom labs; U.S. Customs finalizes punitive port fees for Chinese vessels.
- Since January 2025：
- U.S. wholesale inventories grow 0.63%.
- March 2025：
- Naura Technology enters the ion implantation market by acquiring Kingsemi Co. Ltd.
- April 2025：
- China implements a round of export restrictions on rare earth elements, affecting global defense contractors.
- April 2025 - August 2025：
- U.S. retail inventories (excluding vehicles and parts) rise 0.61%.
- By May 2025：
- Cadence, Synopsys, and Siemens suspend EDA exports to China.
- May 2025：
- Germany surpasses the U.S. as China's largest market for lithium battery exports.
- June 2025：
- Tentative 'London Framework' trade pact reached between U.S. and China to ease restrictions on chips and rare earths.
- June 2025：
- U.S. Export-Import Bank commits $120 million to Critical Metals for the Tanbreez mine in Greenland.
- June 2025：
- Yiwu’s small-goods price index remains flat since this month.
- July 2025：
- China restricts exports of cathode materials and lithium extraction technologies.
- Early July 2025：
- EDA export ban to China is lifted, but with restrictions on upgrades.
- July 2025：
- U.S. introduces the 'Chip Security Act' for advanced AI chip exports; China’s Cyberspace Administration questions Nvidia over H20 chips.
- July 2025：
- U.S. Department of Defense invests $400 million in MP Materials, becoming its largest shareholder.
- August 2025：
- Pentagon invokes Defense Production Act, providing $10 million to NioCorp Developments Ltd.
- August 2025：
- Yongkang’s hardware export index falls below neutral.
- Late August 2025：
- China revokes export waivers for Intel, Samsung, and SK hynix plants in China.
- Early autumn 2025：
- A cautious thaw between U.S. and China begins, marked by trade talks in Madrid and a phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
- Early September 2025：
- 25 Chinese firms added to U.S. Entity List; China opens anti-dumping investigation into U.S. analog chips.
- September 2025：
- Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining raises $75 million to upgrade its Idaho site.
- September 2025：
- SAMR concludes Nvidia-Mellanox holds significant pricing power.
- September 2025：
- China's exports to U.S. fall 27% YoY to $34.3 billion (sixth straight month of double-digit decline); exports of tech goods hit monthly record.
- September 2025：
- China’s exports to U.S. total $317.2 billion, down nearly 17% YoY.
- Sept. 9, 2025：
- Synopsys reports a 43% year-on-year drop in net income, announces layoff plans, and shares drop 36%.
- Sept. 15, 2025：
- SAMR opens antitrust investigation into Nvidia’s Mellanox acquisition.
- Sept. 29, 2025：
- China publishes an interim final rule expanding the scope of its Entity List to include companies with over 50% indirect ownership.
- Sept. 30, 2025：
- Dutch government freezes global operations of Chinese-owned Nexperia, citing governance concerns.
- Late September 2025：
- TikTok–U.S. negotiation collapses; U.S. shutdown deadline set for Dec. 16, 2025.
- Oct. 9, 2025：
- China's Ministry of Commerce issues six directives imposing export controls on rare earth metals, lithium battery technologies, and related equipment.
- Oct. 9, 2025：
- China announces rare earth export restrictions, denying export licenses for military use and for production of advanced AI/memory chips.
- Between Oct. 9 and 15, 2025：
- U.S. and Chinese minerals/semiconductor stocks surge following China's rare earth export countermeasures.
- Oct. 10, 2025：
- China's Ministry of Transport announces retaliatory 'special port service fee' for U.S.-flagged ships; U.S. stock markets lose about $2 trillion in value.
- Oct. 10, 2025：
- China’s SAMR announces antitrust investigation into Qualcomm; Qualcomm shares fall 7.3%.
- Oct. 13, 2025：
- JP Morgan Chase announces a $1.5 trillion 'security and resilience initiative' for U.S. manufacturing and strategic minerals.
- Oct. 15, 2025：
- Wanliyan unveils a 90-gigahertz real-time oscilloscope at a Shenzhen semiconductor expo.
- As of mid-October 2025：
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection has not issued formal notice of new broad tariffs; Chinese companies see rising exports to EU, ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa.
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