Commentary: Beijing’s Next Blueprint Must Solve the Overcapacity Question
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The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, held from Oct. 20 to Oct. 23, will set the direction for the 15th Five-Year Plan, which begins in 2026. In addition to continuing to increase investment in high-tech manufacturing and strengthening new drivers of innovation and green technology, boosting private consumption is also expected to be a central focus of the meeting.
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- The Fourth Plenary Session will guide China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (from 2026), focusing on high-tech, green innovation, and boosting private consumption.
- China faces economic challenges: overcapacity, sluggish consumption, real estate downturn, and external pressure from U.S. tariffs, especially in high-tech and emerging industries.
- Addressing weak consumption through improved social welfare, consumer subsidies, and hukou reform is seen as crucial to resolving overcapacity and stimulating domestic growth.
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Who’s Who
- North Square International Group
- North Square International Group is where Yiru Liu serves as managing director. Liu is also an adjunct professor of finance at National Taiwan University.
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What Happened When
- 2015：
- China faces a glut of steel and cement; supply-side reform is initiated, yielding some results.
- Oct. 20, 2025 to Oct. 23, 2025：
- The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is held to set the direction for the 15th Five-Year Plan.
- By the end of 2025：
- The 14th Five-Year Plan concludes, having emphasized using subsidies to drive green energy technology over its duration (2021-2025).
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