China’s Aviation Expansion Masks Uneven Recovery in Passenger Traffic
Listen to the full version
China’s fixed-asset investment in civil aviation is on track for a decline of more than 30% in 2025, signaling a sharp slowdown after years of rapid infrastructure spending, even as the sector’s total investment for the current five-year plan period is set to surge 38%.
The country’s civil aviation industry is expected to complete around 640 billion yuan ($90 billion) in fixed-asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan between 2021 and 2025, said Han Jun, a deputy administrator of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), at an industry conference hosted by the China Air Transport Association.
Unlock exclusive discounts with a Caixin group subscription — ideal for teams and organizations.
Subscribe to both Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal — for the price of one.
- RELATED
- DIGEST HUB
Digest Hub
Back
- China’s civil aviation fixed-asset investment is projected to fall over 30% in 2025 despite a 38% rise for the overall 2021–2025 period, reaching about 640 billion yuan.
- 2025 passenger traffic (770 million) and total turnover (166 billion ton-km) are set to miss targets, but cargo volume will exceed goals at 10 million tons.
- International aviation recovery lags, reaching only ~81% of 2019 levels, while future growth will prioritize efficiency and quality over mere expansion.
- Between 2021 and 2025：
- China's civil aviation industry is expected to complete around 640 billion yuan in fixed-asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan.
- Annually over the past two years (2023-2024)：
- Around 40 million new people have started flying annually.
- 2024：
- Fixed-asset investment reached 204 billion yuan, peaking with 5.54% growth year-on-year.
- First half of 2025：
- Fixed-asset investment reached 53.1 billion yuan, down 13.69% year-on-year.
- From January 2025 to September 2025：
- Chinese airports handled 610,000 international passenger flights, a 15.9% year-on-year increase but still only 83.6% of 2019 levels; passenger throughput exceeded 100 million, up 18.2% year-on-year but only 80.7% of 2019 levels.
- First three quarters of 2025：
- Chinese carriers' share of international cargo market rose to 44%, up 10 percentage points from 2020.
- 2025：
- Fixed-asset investment projected to be approximately 136 billion yuan, a decline of about 33% from 2024.
- 2025：
- Passenger traffic projected to reach 770 million trips, missing the Five-Year Plan's target of 930 million; transport turnover estimated at 166 billion ton-kilometers, below the goal of 175 billion ton-kilometers; cargo and mail volume expected to reach 10 million tons, exceeding the target by 500,000 tons.
- 2025：
- China's air travel population reached 470 million, an increase of 160 million since 2019.
- As of 2025：
- International routes connect China to 187 cities in 80 countries; connectivity with 61 Belt and Road countries established.
- As of 2025：
- Civil aviation sector has met its targets for reducing carbon emissions and energy consumption.
- As of 2025：
- Han noted an increase in uncertainty for the aviation industry due to a more complex environment.
- PODCAST
- MOST POPULAR
Sign in with Google
Sign in with Facebook
Sign in with 财新