FINANCE

Hong Kong Expected to Swing to Budget Surplus on Stock Market Boom

Published: Nov. 18, 2025 6:13 p.m. GMT+8

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The Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Photo: VCG

Hong Kong is projected to swing to a HK$15.6 billion ($2.2 billion) fiscal surplus in the 2025/26 fiscal year, which runs from April to March, according to Deloitte, a sharp reversal driven by a stock market boom that has bolstered stamp duty revenue.

The forecast contrasts starkly with the government’s own prediction from February of a HK$67 billion deficit.

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Hong Kong is projected by Deloitte to achieve a HK$15.6 billion fiscal surplus in 2025/26, reversing previous deficits and outperforming the government's earlier HK$67 billion deficit forecast.
The surplus is largely driven by a 143% year-on-year surge in stock stamp duty revenue as the Hang Seng Index rose 32% in 2025.
Real GDP grew 3.8% year-on-year in Q3, leading the government to raise its 2025 full-year GDP growth forecast to 3.2%.

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Deloitte: Deloitte projects Hong Kong will achieve a HK$15.6 billion fiscal surplus in the 2025/26 fiscal year, a significant improvement from the government's deficit forecast. This turnaround is largely attributed to a robust stock market, which has boosted stamp duty revenue. Deloitte highlighted the effectiveness of the government's fiscal management in this recovery.

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