Commentary: Why China Is Worried About Migrants Returning Home

An official from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently stated at a national conference on rural employment that the government must “prevent a large-scale return and idling of migrant workers in their hometowns.” The phrase immediately sparked heated online debate and various interpretations.

To understand this directive, one must consider the context. The conference focused on consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation, with the baseline goal of preventing any large-scale slide back into poverty. A special campaign to promote employment for people who were lifted out of poverty after leaving their hometowns but have since moved back is a key part of this strategy. The policy is dubbed the “two stabilities and one prevention”: stabilizing the scale of employment and the income of the formerly impoverished population, and preventing a large-scale return to poverty caused by unemployment. In this context, the purpose of preventing a “large-scale return and idling” becomes clear.

This wording is unusual, which raises the question: Is a “large-scale return” already happening, or are there warning signs? Publicly available information doesn’t confirm this. However, the fact that it was a major topic at a national conference shows it is a risk that cannot be ignored. The number of formerly impoverished people in the workforce has remained above 30 million for four consecutive years. Should a mass return occur, its effects would hardly be confined to formerly impoverished areas. The risk should not be underestimated and must be addressed proactively.