ECONOMY

China Inflation Seen Picking Up as Bad Weather Lifts Food Prices

Published: Dec. 9, 2025 5:53 p.m. GMT+8

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China’s consumer inflation likely accelerated in November as bad weather pushed up vegetable prices, while factory-gate deflation is expected to remain broadly unchanged from October.

A Caixin survey of 13 domestic and international institutions shows economists generally expect November’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation to rise, with an average forecast of 0.7% year-on-year — 0.5 percentage points higher than the actual reading in October.

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China's November CPI inflation is forecasted to rise to 0.7% year-on-year, mainly due to higher vegetable prices from bad weather.
The producer price index (PPI) is expected to fall 2.1% year-on-year in November, unchanged from October, though some predict a slight narrowing.
The increase in CPI is driven by temporary food supply issues; PPI remains pressured by commodity and raw material price trends.

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Who’s Who

Huachuang Securities: Huachuang Securities is mentioned in the article as the employer of Zhang Yu, a chief macro analyst. Zhang Yu anticipates that China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth will accelerate to approximately 0.7%, primarily due to food prices. She attributes this to adverse weather conditions impacting vegetable supply.

Nomura: Nomura's chief China economist, Lu Ting, anticipates that the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) will narrow to 1.9%. This forecast is attributed to instabilities in both global commodities and domestic raw materials.

CITIC Securities: CITIC Securities forecasts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) in China will remain unchanged, experiencing a 2.1% decline. This prediction is attributed to a slight dip in crude oil prices.

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