2050 Global Net-Zero Goal Is Out of Reach, Says S&P’s Daniel Yergin

Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and a renowned energy expert, contends that achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is highly improbable. This target, set forth by the United Nations at the 2019 Climate Action Summit and widely adopted as a global consensus, faces mounting challenges due to economic limitations and physical realities [para. 1][para. 2]. Yergin emphasized that transforming the enormous, $115 trillion global economy in a short timeframe of 25 years is unrealistic, and many are beginning to acknowledge that the 2050 net-zero goal may never have been feasible [para. 3].

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2025, published in November, global oil demand will continue to rise through 2050, contradicting earlier expectations of a demand peak before 2030 [para. 4]. Yergin criticizes agencies like the IEA for focusing too narrowly on climate goals, often neglecting broader needs such as energy security, economic growth for developing nations, the true costs of energy transition, and the necessary political support [para. 5].

Yergin describes the path toward energy transition as a “bumpy road,” requiring both the expansion of new energies, like renewables, and continued growth in traditional energy sources to meet escalating demand. He insists that all available energy resources are necessary to sustain global needs [para. 6]. Looking ahead, Yergin anticipates continued expansion of wind and solar power, the increasing importance of battery storage, renewed momentum for nuclear energy, and sustained significant roles for oil and natural gas. He also stresses the vital role of minerals—particularly copper—in the evolving energy supply chain [para. 7].

China’s approach to the energy transition is described as highly disciplined and effective, driven by its 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans. Over the past 15 years, China has seen a dramatic increase in electric vehicles (EVs) and the competitiveness of wind and solar power. Today, more than half of new cars sold in China are EVs, a stark contrast to approximately 10% in the United States [para. 8][para. 9]. Nonetheless, fossil fuels still represent roughly 80% of global energy consumption, a figure that cannot change rapidly [para. 10].

Yergin notes a shift in the attitude toward oil and gas investments: while the IEA once stated that no new investments were needed, it now estimates that $540 billion per year in upstream investments will be required through 2050, reflecting a more pragmatic approach by international oil companies as well [para. 11]. Hydrogen is another area of reassessment; while China, Japan, and Germany continue investing, uncertainty about demand and costs has led to a cooling of enthusiasm and the suspension of several large projects [para. 12].

Technological innovation remains central to the energy transition story, with Yergin predicting unforeseen advances, particularly as artificial intelligence (AI) rapidly transforms the energy sector by boosting electricity demand [para. 13]. The global economic shift toward increased mineral use, as seen in EVs requiring nearly three times more copper than conventional cars, further highlights this transformation [para. 14].

Fragmented global supply chains have amplified the strategic importance of minerals and rare earths, with China recognized as a crucial provider not just in extraction but also processing—developing new non-Chinese mines is both expensive and time-consuming [para. 15][para. 16]. In this landscape, Yergin underscores the vital importance of U.S.-China relations and urges enhanced trust and communication [para. 17]. While the U.S. leads in oil and natural gas and China excels in transition technologies, Yergin sees considerable potential for cooperation but notes it will depend on improvements in political relations [para. 18][para. 19].