BUSINESS

China Faces Fallout After U.S. Removes Maduro, Analysts Say

By Luo Guoping, Bao Zhiming and Wang Xintong

Published: Jan. 5, 2026 7:38 p.m. GMT+8

00:00

00:00/00:00

Listen to this article 1x

Oil derricks in Cabimas, Venezuela, on Dec. 18, 2025. Photo: VCG

The U.S. strike on Venezuela is unlikely to have a large impact on global oil prices in the short term, but it could hit China harder, which had been a key beneficiary of earlier U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan crude, industry analysts said.

President Donald Trump announced on social media Saturday that the U.S. had “carried out a “large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolás Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country.”

You've accessed an article available only to subscribers

Subscribe today for just $.99.

VIEW OPTIONS

Unlock exclusive discounts with a Caixin group subscription — ideal for teams and organizations.

Subscribe to both Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal — for the price of one.

Share this article

Open WeChat and scan the QR code

DIGEST HUB

Digest Hub

Back

Explore the story in 30 seconds

The U.S. conducted a large-scale military strike on Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and pledging billions in U.S. oil investment, aiming for a political transition.
The intervention is expected to have limited short-term impact on global oil prices, as Venezuela currently produces about 1% of global supply (~750,000 barrels/day), down from 2.77 million barrels/day in 2019.
Venezuelan crude exports to China have sharply declined, while potential normalization with the U.S. could shift trade flows and eventually boost output over several years.

AI generated, for reference only

Who’s Who

Sinochem Energy Co. Ltd.: Wang Haibin, a senior economist at Sinochem Energy Co. Ltd., believes that a potential resurgence in Venezuelan oil output could significantly rise if U.S.-Venezuela relations normalize. However, he cautions that rehabilitating the upstream sector would require more than two years of work and depend on oil prices.

Chevron Corp.: Chevron Corp. is currently the only U.S. oil major producing in Venezuela. It operates joint ventures with state-owned PDVSA, and these ventures produced approximately 245,000 barrels a day in December 2025, which amounted to roughly a quarter of Venezuela's total oil output.

PDVSA: Chevron Corp. is the sole remaining U.S. oil major operating joint ventures in Venezuela with the state-owned PDVSA. As of December 2025, these ventures produced approximately 245,000 barrels per day, accounting for about a quarter of Venezuela's total oil output.

China National Petroleum Corp.: China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), a Chinese energy company, entered Venezuela in 1998. CNPC withdrew its staff from Venezuela in late 2025.

Fidelity Energy: Fidelity Energy is an energy consultancy that provided data indicating Venezuela's oil output had fallen to approximately 750,000 barrels a day. The consultancy also suggested that if sanctions are lifted, Venezuelan oil exports are likely to shift back towards the U.S.

S&P Global: S&P Global reported that Chevron's joint ventures in Venezuela produced approximately 245,000 barrels per day in December 2025, accounting for about a quarter of the country's total output. They also noted a significant drop in Venezuelan oil exports to China, from nearly 300,000 barrels per day in November to just 65,000 barrels per day in December.

AI generated, for reference only

What Happened When

1998：: China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) entered Venezuela in 1998.

2007：: Foreign investment began to be limited since the late President Hugo Chávez started nationalizing energy assets in 2007.

2019-02：: Before the U.S. banned imports of Venezuelan crude in February 2019, the country produced an average of 2.77 million barrels a day.

2019：: After U.S. sanctions were imposed in 2019, Venezuela increasingly redirected oil exports to China and India.

2024 (late)：: Venezuela holds more than 300 billion barrels of proven crude reserves—nearly 20% of the global total—as of late 2024.

2025-11：: Venezuelan exports to China peaked at nearly 300,000 barrels per day in November 2025.

2025-12：: Chevron’s ventures produced about 245,000 barrels a day in December 2025.

2025-12：: Venezuelan exports to China fell to just 65,000 barrels per day in December 2025, while exports to the U.S. remained stable at 165,000 barrels per day according to S&P Global.

2025 (late)：: Chinese energy companies, including CNPC, withdrew their staff from Venezuela in late 2025.

2025 (late)：: Venezuelan oil exports to China dropped sharply in late 2025 after Trump intensified sanctions, including the seizure of oil tankers.

2026-01-03：: President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife (2026-01-03).

2026-01-03：: Trump stated the U.S. would 'run' Venezuela until a proper transition could be achieved and that U.S. oil companies would invest in Venezuela’s infrastructure (2026-01-03).