Standard Chartered Forecasts Firmer Yuan as Beijing Shifts Focus From Exports to Finance
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Standard Chartered Plc expects China’s currency to strengthen against the U.S. dollar over the next 12 months, citing a growing policy commitment by Beijing to cultivate a “strong currency” as part of a broader effort to elevate the yuan’s global role.
Ding Shuang, the bank’s chief economist for Greater China and North Asia, said Wednesday at a macroeconomic briefing in Hong Kong that the yuan is forecast to rise to 6.85 per dollar by year-end, after hovering around 7.0 through mid-2026. He described the push for a stronger currency as a long-term policy goal that is increasingly taking shape.
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- Standard Chartered expects the yuan to strengthen to 6.85 per U.S. dollar by year-end, with stable policy support and increased global use.
- China’s GDP is projected to grow 4.6% in 2026, CPI to reach 0.6%, and the fiscal deficit ratio to narrow to 3.8%.
- Offshore yuan assets hit a 43-month high; Hong Kong’s role in yuan internationalization is expanding through new regulatory measures.
- Standard Chartered Plc
- Standard Chartered Plc forecasts China's yuan to strengthen to 6.85 per dollar by year-end, driven by Beijing's commitment to a "strong currency" policy. The bank's chief economist for Greater China and North Asia, Ding Shuang, also projects China's GDP to grow 4.6% in 2026. Standard Chartered's Renminbi Globalization Index (RGI) rebounded in late 2025.
- Late 2023：
- Signals from the Central Financial Work Conference indicated a strong currency as a key pillar of China's financial aspirations.
- Early 2025：
- Follow-up policies after the Central Financial Work Conference continued to emphasize a strong yuan as a foundational aspect of financial policy.
- 2025：
- Consumer price index was near-zero and producer price index was estimated at -2.7%. China also used 'unconventional' counter-cyclical measures amid heightened trade tensions with the U.S.
- 2025：
- Fiscal deficit ratio stood at 4%.
- August 2025：
- Standard Chartered Renminbi Globalization Index (RGI) dipped before rebounding later in the year.
- As of the end of the third quarter 2025：
- Offshore holdings of yuan-denominated assets rose to a 43-month high of 10.42 trillion yuan.
- Late 2025：
- Hong Kong Monetary Authority, People’s Bank of China, and other regulators introduced and upgraded mechanisms to improve offshore access to yuan liquidity.
- Wednesday, January 6, 2026：
- Ding Shuang forecasted at a briefing that the yuan would rise to 6.85 per dollar by year-end 2026, after hovering around 7.0 through mid-2026. He also commented on Beijing's policy goals.
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