Analysis: China’s Deposit Maturity Wave Puts Household Money to the Test
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A looming wave of maturing household deposits could reshape how Chinese savers allocate their wealth in 2026, as years of falling interest rates erode the appeal of rolling money back into banks.
Estimates suggest that between 30 trillion yuan ($4.3 trillion) and 60 trillion yuan in two-year and longer-term fixed deposits will come due this year, many of which were placed after 2020, when market volatility and the pandemic drove households toward precautionary savings. With deposit rates now at low levels, the scale and timing of these maturities have become a key focus for markets.
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- Between 30 trillion and 60 trillion yuan in long-term household deposits will mature in China in 2026.
- Ongoing deposit rate cuts since 2022 may accelerate households shifting funds out of bank deposits.
- Most redeployed savings are expected to go to conservative products like insurance, not into equities, due to weak consumption and a soft property market.
- Banks
- In China, banks are facing a "deposit migration" as maturing household deposits, estimated between 30-60 trillion yuan, were placed when rates were higher. Due to multiple rounds of deposit rate cuts since 2022, the appeal of rolling money back into banks has eroded. This makes conservative options like insurance products and bank wealth management products more attractive for savers.
- Insurance companies
- The article indicates that Chinese savers are considering insurance products as a "relatively conservative option" for their wealth. This shift is happening as maturing fixed deposits, impacted by falling interest rates, prompt households to re-evaluate where to invest their savings. Insurance companies are therefore poised to potentially receive a significant influx of funds.
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