China’s Top Cities Face Office Glut With Supply Doubling Demand in 2025
00:00/00:00
Listen to this article
1x
Subscribe now
Listen to the full version
Listen to the full version
Office buildings in Shanghai’s Lujiazui area. Photo: VCG
China’s top-tier cities struggled with a worsening glut of premium office space in 2025, as new supply outpaced demand by more than double in key hubs including Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
The oversupply was most severe in the southern tech capital of Shenzhen, where the supply-demand ratio soared to 2.7 to 1 — far higher than levels in other major markets.
You've accessed an article available only to subscribers
VIEW OPTIONS
Unlock exclusive discounts with a Caixin group subscription — ideal for teams and organizations.
Subscribe to both Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal — for the price of one.
- RELATED
Share this article
Open WeChat and scan the QR code
- DIGEST HUB
Digest Hub
Back
Explore the story in 30 seconds
- In 2025, premium office space supply in top Chinese cities far exceeded demand, with Shenzhen’s ratio at 2.7:1 and vacancy nearing 30%.
- Net absorption of Grade A office space in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen dropped to 1.18 million sqm in 2025, 65% below the 2021 peak.
- Average rents in Shenzhen fell 11.7% year-on-year (46% below 2018 high), while tech, media, and telecom leasing surged, especially due to AI growth.
AI generated, for reference only
Who’s Who
- Cushman & Wakefield
- Zhang Xiaoduan, Vice President at Cushman & Wakefield's research arm, indicates that strong leasing in Shenzhen's Qianhai stemmed from new projects offering discounted rents and generous terms amid intense competition. Cushman & Wakefield projects that Shenzhen's average annual supply of Grade A office space will nearly triple between 2026 and 2029.
AI generated, for reference only
What Happened When
- 2018：
- Shenzhen's average Grade A office rent peaked; by Q4 2025, it had fallen roughly 46% from this high.
- 2019–2021：
- Shenzhen experienced a boom in net absorption; average annual absorption in 2025 is down more than 30% from this period.
- 2021：
- Net absorption of Grade A office space across Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen peaked at 3.34 million square meters.
- Since 2022：
- Net absorption of Grade A office space across the four cities declined sharply to about 1.1 to 1.2 million square meters annually.
- 2023：
- Technology, media, and telecom firms accounted for 19.7% of new leases in Shenzhen.
- 2025：
- There was a worsening glut of premium office space in top-tier Chinese cities as new supply outpaced demand by more than double.
- 2025：
- In Shenzhen, the supply-demand ratio for office space reached 2.7:1, the most severe among major markets.
- 2025：
- Net absorption across the four cities totaled 1.18 million square meters, down 3.2% from the previous year and nearly 65% below the 2021 peak.
- 2025：
- Shenzhen posted a 60% year-on-year increase in net absorption to roughly 264,000 square meters.
- 2025：
- Over 80% of Shenzhen’s take-up came from Qianhai, where about 220,000 square meters were leased.
- 2025：
- Grade A office additions rose in all four cities, with Shenzhen registering a 154% year-on-year jump to about 712,000 square meters.
- 2025：
- Technology, media, and telecom firms' share of new leases in Shenzhen rose to 30%.
- Q4 2025：
- Average rents for Grade A offices in Shenzhen fell 11.7% year-on-year to 149.4 yuan per square meter per month.
- By year-end 2025：
- Shanghai office rents had declined 27% from their peak, while Beijing and Guangzhou rents had tumbled over 40% from their respective peaks.
- By year-end 2025：
- Vacancy rates for Grade A offices reached 23.4% in Shanghai, 20.7% in Guangzhou, and 29.4% in Shenzhen (near a record-high 30%).
AI generated, for reference only
- MOST POPULAR
Sign in with Google
Sign in with Facebook
Sign in with 财新