BUSINESS

China Lithium Futures Surge on Export Rush Ahead of Tax Rebate Cuts

Published: Jan. 15, 2026 5:35 p.m. GMT+8

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The rally defied the industry’s typical seasonal lull, driven by policy-induced demand and supply tightness stemming from refinery maintenance. Photo: IC Photo

Chinese lithium carbonate futures have surged more than 20% in the first two weeks of 2026, hitting levels not seen in over two years as battery manufacturers rush to export before Beijing slashes tax rebates.

Prices for the most active futures contract for May 2026 delivery on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange climbed to a more than two-year high of 173,400 yuan ($24,865) per ton at one point on Wednesday. The rally defied the industry’s typical seasonal lull, driven by policy-induced demand and supply tightness stemming from refinery maintenance.

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Chinese lithium carbonate futures rose over 20% in early 2026, reaching a two-year high of 173,400 yuan/ton, driven by an export rush ahead of tax rebate cuts and refinery maintenance.
Export tax rebates for battery products drop from 9% to 6% on April 1, 2026, and end by January 2027, prompting stockpiling.
Industry forecasts balanced 2026 supply/demand, but risks remain as high prices may boost production and battery makers push sodium-ion alternatives.

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Who’s Who

Guangzhou Futures Exchange: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is a platform where lithium carbonate futures are traded. In January 2026, the most active futures contract for May 2026 delivery on this exchange saw prices climb to over a two-year high of 173,400 yuan per ton. The exchange also increased trading fees to curb overheating.

Zhongtai Futures Co. Ltd.: Zhongtai Futures Co. Ltd. observed that the recent policy change regarding export tax rebates for battery products is creating a "busy season" in the first quarter, which is typically a quiet period. They anticipate that lithium carbonate inventories will decline in the near term as battery production maintains strong momentum.

Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material Co. Ltd.: Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material Co. Ltd. (301358.SZ) is one of four major lithium salt producers mentioned in the article. This company, alongside others, announced a one-month maintenance halt in late December, contributing to expectations of a short-term supply squeeze in the lithium market.

Hubei Wanrun New Energy Technology Co. Ltd.: Hubei Wanrun New Energy Technology Co. Ltd. (688275.SH) is one of four major lithium salt producers that announced a one-month maintenance halt in late December. This reduction in supply contributed to the recent surge in lithium carbonate prices, as it raised expectations of a short-term supply squeeze.

Shenzhen Dynanonic Co. Ltd.: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co. Ltd. (300769.SZ) is one of the four major lithium salt producers mentioned in the article. This company, along with others, announced a one-month maintenance halt in late December, contributing to a short-term supply squeeze in the lithium market and influencing price increases.

Guizhou Anda Energy Technology Co. Ltd.: Guizhou Anda Energy Technology Co. Ltd. is one of four major lithium salt producers mentioned in the article. This company, along with others, announced a one-month maintenance halt in late December, which contributed to a short-term supply squeeze in the lithium market, thereby impacting prices.

Ganfeng Lithium Group Co. Ltd.: Ganfeng Lithium Group Co. Ltd. (002460.SZ) is a major lithium producer. Its chairman, Li Liangbin, predicted a balanced supply and demand for lithium in 2026, with an estimated global demand of 1.9 million tons against a supply increase to 1.95 million tons. This suggests limited potential for sustained price increases despite current market volatility.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd.: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) is an industry giant in China. Facing potential long-term high lithium costs, the company revived its sodium-ion battery commercialization plans in late 2025, aiming for large-scale application in 2026. This move is seen as a strategy to cap long-term lithium costs.

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What Happened When

November 2025：: Lithium carbonate price was around 80,000 yuan per ton.

Late 2025：: Battery production showed strong momentum.

Late 2025：: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. revived sodium-ion battery commercialization plans, aiming for large-scale application in 2026.

December 2025：: Li Liangbin predicted that supply and demand would broadly balance in 2026; forecasted global demand to grow 30% to 1.9 million tons and supply to 1.95 million tons.

Late December 2025：: Four major lithium salt producers announced one-month maintenance halts.

Around late December 2025：: Lithium carbonate prices climbed above 100,000 yuan per ton from 80,000 yuan in November 2025.

January 8, 2026：: Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced phased removal of export tax rebates for battery products.

In the first two weeks of 2026：: Chinese lithium carbonate futures surged more than 20%.

Wednesday, January 15, 2026：: Prices for May 2026 delivery climbed to a more than two-year high of 173,400 yuan per ton.

Wednesday, January 15, 2026：: Guangzhou Futures Exchange raised trading fees for 10 lithium carbonate contracts to 0.032% of transaction value; futures closed down 3.5% at 161,900 yuan per ton on this day.

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