China’s Secondhand Home Prices Drop Again, But Pace Eases
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China’s top-tier housing market continued to soften in December, with prices for existing homes in its four major cities extending their slide from a year earlier — a sign that recovery remains elusive despite a slower pace of monthly declines.
Data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that prices of secondhand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen dropped 7% in December from a year earlier, deepening from a 5.8% annual drop the prior month. On a month-over-month basis, prices slipped 0.9%, moderating slightly from November’s steeper fall.
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- Existing home prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen fell 7% year-over-year in December, with monthly declines moderating to 0.9%.
- New home prices in these cities dropped 1.7% annually and 0.3% monthly; first-tier cities led national declines for eight consecutive months.
- Analysts note the slowdown in monthly declines is due to more transactions and homeowner pricing reluctance, but a true recovery remains absent amid high inventory.
- Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center
- Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, attributes the moderation in monthly price declines to increased transaction activity and homeowners' reluctance to further reduce prices.
- Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute
- Yan Yuejin, the vice president of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, stated that the market is still in an inventory-clearance phase. He noted that recent marginal monthly improvements are due to short-term bargaining rather than a genuine trend reversal. Yan emphasized that reducing unsold inventory is crucial for a lasting rebound.
- May 2023：
- Guangzhou's market started its decline.
- September 2024：
- A Politburo promise was made to halt the real estate slump.
- October 2024：
- Support measures briefly steadied prices, which posted a 0.4% monthly gain, breaking a 13-month losing streak.
- Late 2024：
- A short-lived bounce was observed in the housing market after the Politburo's intervention.
- By April 2025：
- Housing prices had resumed their descent after the brief reprieve, leading to steady monthly declines.
- April 2025：
- Guangzhou saw a brief reprieve in its housing price decline.
- Between April 2025 and November 2026：
- The housing market endured steady monthly declines between 0.7% and 1.1%.
- January 2026：
- National Bureau of Statistics released housing price data.
- January 2026：
- Yan Yuejin warned the market remains in an inventory-clearance phase.
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