BUSINESS

Chinese Developers Forecast Over 240 Billion Yuan in 2025 Losses

Published: Feb. 5, 2026 1:11 a.m. GMT+8

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A construction project of a real estate development in Huangpu District, Guangzhou. Photo: VCG

China’s publicly traded real estate developers are bracing for another brutal year, forecasting combined net losses of more than 240 billion yuan ($34.5 billion) for 2025 as the industry’s crisis deepens after more than four years of decline.

According to earnings forecasts from 74 A-share property management and development companies as of Feb. 3, the losses are highly concentrated. The top 10 loss-making firms are projected to account for about 194 billion yuan, or over 80%, of the total deficit, Wind data show.

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China’s listed real estate developers forecast over 240 billion yuan ($34.5 billion) in net losses for 2025, with the top 10 firms accounting for more than 80%.
Vanke projects a record 82 billion yuan loss; other major firms like China Fortune Land and Greenland Holdings face double-digit billion yuan deficits.
Profit gains among a few companies are mainly due to one-off asset sales or restructuring, not core real estate operations.

AI generated, for reference only

Who’s Who

Vanke Co. Ltd.: Vanke Co. Ltd. is a major Chinese real estate developer. It is projected to report a net loss of approximately 82 billion yuan for 2025, a record for an A-share property developer. This follows a 49.5 billion yuan loss in 2024, its first since going public, with its financial troubles intensifying after a debt crisis began in November 2025.

China Fortune Land Development Co. Ltd.: China Fortune Land Development Co. Ltd. (CFLD) is expected to face a significant net loss of up to 24 billion yuan for 2025. This projected loss is wider than in the previous year, highlighting the worsening conditions for the company within China's real estate crisis. CFLD is among the top five companies forecasting substantial losses, indicating severe financial distress.

Greenland Holdings Co. Ltd.: Greenland Holdings Co. Ltd. (600606.SH), a Chinese real estate developer, is projected to report a net loss of up to 19 billion yuan for 2025. This significant loss contributes to the deepening crisis in China's real estate market, reflecting widespread financial distress among developers.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co. Ltd.: Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co. Ltd. (OCT) is a Chinese real estate developer. It is projected to be among the top loss-making firms in 2025, forecasting a loss of up to 15.5 billion yuan. This anticipated loss for 2025 is an increase from its loss in the previous year, highlighting the ongoing challenges faced by the company within China's real estate market downturn.

Gemdale Corp.: Gemdale Corp. (金地集团) is a Chinese real estate developer. It is projected to face a net loss of up to 13.5 billion yuan for 2025, an increase from its losses in the previous year. This forecast places it among the top five companies expecting the largest losses in China's distressed real estate market.

Jinke Property Group Co. Ltd.: Jinke Property Group Co. Ltd. expects to report a 30 billion to 35 billion yuan profit. However, this is primarily due to a one-time restructuring gain of up to 70 billion yuan. Its core operations are actually unprofitable, indicating that the company is relying on extraordinary events rather than its fundamental business for positive financial results.

Chongqing Yukaifa Co. Ltd.: Chongqing Yukaifa Co. Ltd. (重庆渝开发) is a Chinese real estate developer. The company is projected to book profits in 2025. This profit, however, is not a result of its core property business but rather stems from selling subsidiaries. This action suggests a focus on balance sheet repair over sustainable earnings.

Dongguan Winnerway Industrial Zone Co. Ltd.: Dongguan Winnerway Industrial Zone Co. Ltd. is mentioned as one of the companies booking profits in 2025. However, this profit isn't from sustainable earnings but rather from selling stakes in non-property assets, such as a coal mine. This indicates the company is focused on balance sheet repair rather than a sustainable business model in the struggling real estate sector.

Langold Real Estate Co. Ltd.: Langold Real Estate Co. Ltd. (朗基地产) is mentioned in the article as a Chinese property developer. Facing the current real estate crisis, Langold plans to exit property development. This strategic shift involves moving towards an "asset-light model" following a significant asset sale.

Vantone Neo Development Group Co. Ltd.: Vantone Neo Development Group Co. Ltd. (万通新发展集团) is a Chinese real estate developer. Facing the severe real estate crisis, the company is strategically shrinking its traditional real estate business. Instead, it is pivoting towards new sectors, including semiconductors, as a means of survival and adaptation to the challenging market conditions.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co. Ltd.: Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co. Ltd. is a brokerage firm that offered a slightly optimistic outlook on China's real estate market. In a February 1 report, they suggested that the industry's "most difficult period will gradually pass." The brokerage anticipates that high-quality firms will eventually lead a stabilization in sales and investment, potentially allowing their earnings to bottom out later.

AI generated, for reference only

What Happened When

2024：: Vanke Co. Ltd. reported a net loss of 49.5 billion yuan, its first loss since going public.

2025：: China’s major publicly traded real estate developers are expected to post combined net losses exceeding 240 billion yuan.

2025：: Vanke Co. Ltd. anticipates a record net loss of around 82 billion yuan, worsening from 2024.

2025：: China Fortune Land Development, Greenland Holdings, Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town, and Gemdale Corp. project losses of up to 24, 19, 15.5, and 13.5 billion yuan respectively, wider than 2024.

2025：: Jinke Property Group Co. Ltd. expects to turn a profit of 30-35 billion yuan due to a one-time restructuring gain, while core operations remain unprofitable.

2025：: Langold Real Estate Co. Ltd. plans to exit property development for an asset-light model after a major asset sale.

By November 2025：: Vanke’s financial turmoil escalated after a debt crisis erupted.

As of Feb. 1, 2026：: Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co. Ltd. reports that the industry’s most difficult period will gradually pass, expecting high-quality firms to lead stabilization later in 2026.

As of Feb. 3, 2026：: 74 A-share property management and development companies had released earnings forecasts for 2025, showing highly concentrated losses.

AI generated, for reference only