China’s Existing Home Market Shows Glimmer of Recovery
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The Chinese mainland’s resale housing market has shown early signs of stabilizing as sales volumes rebounded and price declines eased. But falling rents, demographic and other headwinds continue to weigh on a durable recovery.
Data from Sinolink Securities Co. Ltd. showed that in 22 major Chinese mainland cities, the year-on-year decline in existing home sales by floor area narrowed by nearly 14 percentage points between Jan. 1 and 25 compared with the previous month. Weekly figures underscore this momentum, with transaction volumes from Jan. 19 to 25 reaching 2.79 million square meters, the highest level since June 2025 and a 17.7% increase from a year earlier.
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- Mainland China's resale housing market shows stabilization, with a 17.7% year-on-year rise in weekly transaction volumes and price declines narrowing to 0.7% in January 2025.
- Hong Kong's property market saw clearer recovery: 21% rise in secondary transactions, 3.3% home price increase in 2025, and rising rents pushing yields above mortgage rates.
- Mainland challenges persist: falling rents, negative carry, shrinking and aging population, and slower demand-side recovery compared to Hong Kong.
- Sinolink Securities Co. Ltd.
- Sinolink Securities Co. Ltd. provided data indicating early stabilization in mainland China's resale housing market. Their findings show a narrowing year-on-year decline in existing home sales and an easing of downward pressure on listing prices in January. They suggest this uptick might be seasonal, influenced by buyers shifting to the secondary market.
- Guosen Securities Co. Ltd.
- Guosen Securities Co. Ltd. reported that Hong Kong's secondary home transactions increased 21% year-on-year in 2025, reaching its second-highest level since 2013. They noted that residential rents in Hong Kong have been rising since late 2022, surpassing 2019 highs. The firm highlighted that falling HIBOR rates made property ownership a positive-carry investment, with rental yields exceeding mortgage rates.
- China Index Academy
- According to the article, the China Index Academy collects data on residential rental prices across 50 cities. Their data indicates that the decline in these prices widened in the fourth quarter of 2025.
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