China January Lending Slips as State Borrowing Lifts Credit, Survey Shows
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China’s new bank lending likely edged down in January from a year earlier, even as overall credit growth accelerated, supported by a surge in government borrowing aimed at jump-starting the economy.
New yuan loans are estimated at 5.07 trillion yuan ($730.0 billion) in January, slightly below the 5.13 trillion yuan recorded in the same month last year, according to the median forecast of 12 financial institutions surveyed by Caixin. In contrast, aggregate financing — a broader gauge of credit to the real economy — is expected to rise to 7.16 trillion yuan, up from 7.05 trillion yuan a year earlier. The January data, typically marked by a seasonal lending push from banks, are set to be released shortly.
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- China’s new yuan loans in January are estimated at 5.07 trillion yuan, slightly below last year’s 5.13 trillion yuan, while aggregate financing is expected to rise to 7.16 trillion yuan.
- Government bond issuance and policy-backed lending have driven credit growth, amid weak household demand and subdued property sales.
- China’s loan prime rates are expected to remain unchanged in February, with M2 money supply growth steady at 8.5%.
- Huatai Securities
- Huatai Securities is mentioned in the article as the employer of Yi Huan, their chief economist. Yi Huan forecasted new loans of 4.9 trillion yuan, noting that despite a rise, commercial paper rates are still below last year's levels, indicating soft credit demand.
- Changjiang Securities
- Wu Ge, the chief economist at Changjiang Securities, observed that a modest increase in bill rates indicates a tepid credit supply. This suggests that despite efforts to stimulate the economy, the availability of credit remains somewhat restrained.
- Citic Securities
- Yang Fan, chief macro and policy analyst at Citic Securities, suggests that the slightly lower loan figures reflect banks' efforts to distribute lending more evenly throughout the year, rather than concentrating it in the first quarter. This indicates a strategic approach to credit distribution by financial institutions like Citic Securities.
- China International Capital Corp
- Lin Yingqi, a banking analyst at China International Capital Corp (CICC), indicated that corporate borrowing in China is expected to remain robust. This is attributed to policy support for infrastructure projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Lin also noted that household borrowing would likely remain weak due to sluggish property sales and slow consumer credit growth.
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