Commentary: U.S., China Should Avoid a ‘Spring Surprise’ Before Trump Visit
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The Munich Security Conference kicks off in Munich on Feb. 13. Photo: VCG
Following the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, another heavyweight forum kicked off on Feb. 13 in Munich, the capital of Germany’s southern state of Bavaria. Known as the Munich Security Conference (MSC), it remains a pivotal gathering on the European continent.
While less flashy than Davos, the MSC boasts a longer history. Its predecessor, the International Security Policy Conference, began in 1963.
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- The 2025 Munich Security Conference highlighted U.S.-Europe tensions, notably through Vice President J.D. Vance’s critical remarks on European policies.
- U.S.-China relations remain fragile, with President Trump set to visit China in April amid concerns over potential incidents and large U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
- Both nations are working to stabilize ties through diplomatic meetings, but internal U.S. policy divisions and looming uncertainties persist.
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What Happened When
- Early 2023：
- The balloon incident occurred, which disrupted progress in U.S.-China relations following the leaders’ meeting in Bali.
- November 2023：
- APEC summit held in San Francisco, enabling a reset of U.S.-China relations after a year of diplomatic repair.
- 2025：
- The Munich Security Conference took place, with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance delivering a defining speech that triggered significant European responses.
- By 2025：
- The U.S. approved $11 billion in arms sales to Taiwan.
- October 2025：
- At the Busan summit in South Korea, Chinese and U.S. leaders agreed on a plan for heads of state to exchange visits in 2026.
- February 13, 2026：
- The Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2026 kicked off in Munich, Germany.
- As of February 2026：
- The U.S. is maneuvering another arms sale to Taiwan totaling nearly $20 billion. The deal has not yet been finalized.
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