In Depth: Population Inflow Strains Classrooms in China’s Economic Hubs
00:00/00:00
Listen to this article
1x
Subscribe now
Listen to the full version
Listen to the full version
Local governments across China’s manufacturing and tech hubs are sounding the alarm on a new shortage: classroom seats.
While the country grapples with a long-term population decline, a demographic echo from the prior decade is moving through the system. The cohort born during the 2016 “two-child policy” limits has graduated from primary school, pushing the capacity crunch into junior high schools. Major cities, which continue to attract migrant labor despite the national slowdown, are now scrambling to accommodate the surge.
You've accessed an article available only to subscribers
VIEW OPTIONS
Unlock exclusive discounts with a Caixin group subscription — ideal for teams and organizations.
Subscribe to both Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal — for the price of one.
- RELATED
Share this article
Open WeChat and scan the QR code
- DIGEST HUB
Digest Hub
Back
Explore the story in 30 seconds
- Major Chinese cities face a shortage of junior high school seats due to a demographic surge and continued internal migration, with cities like Guangzhou and Hangzhou issuing "degree warnings."
- Competition for school spots favors families with local residency and property, disadvantaging migrant children and intensifying the "left-behind children" issue.
- Authorities are piloting flexible "Tidal Schools" and teacher pools to address temporary demand without overbuilding as the high-school-age population is expected to peak by 2029.
AI generated, for reference only
What Happened When
- 2016：
- The cohort born under the new 'two-child policy' limits is born, setting the stage for later school enrollment surges.
- 2024：
- Guangzhou and Shenzhen record net population increases of 151,000 and 199,000, respectively, while Hangzhou and Xi’an each add over 100,000 residents.
- By 2025：
- Guangzhou authorities have added 460,000 basic education spots over the current five-year planning period ending in 2025.
- Late 2025：
- Major cities including Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Xi’an, and Dongguan issue a series of 'degree warnings,' signaling that demand for the 2026 school year will outstrip supply.
- As of December 2025：
- Hangzhou issues 'red alerts' for approximately 80 schools due to projected shortages for 2026 enrollment.
- 2026：
- Classroom seat shortages are anticipated, especially for junior high schools, in major cities such as Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Xi’an, and Dongguan.
- 2026：
- Hangzhou’s admissions system prioritizes applicants with both local residency and property, disadvantaging migrant children.
- 2026：
- Guangzhou’s Nansha District and parts of Dongguan report non-entry grades are saturated, barring transfer students and causing more 'left-behind children.'
- 2026：
- Hangzhou’s Xiaoshan District pilots 'Tidal Schools,' operating high-school-standard facilities temporarily as junior high schools to address the capacity crunch.
- 2026：
- A 'Tidal Teacher Pool' is being established, hiring overqualified instructors to act as a flexible teaching reserve for junior and later high schools.
AI generated, for reference only
- PODCAST
- MOST POPULAR
Sign in with Google
Sign in with Facebook
Sign in with 财新