Analysis: Japan’s New Leader Navigates a High-Stakes Balancing Act Between China and the U.S.

1. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, having secured a strong domestic mandate, faces immediate international tests, particularly in managing the complex relationships with both Washington and Beijing. Her assertive political style, successful in her election campaign, must now transition to careful diplomacy as she navigates Japan’s strategic position between the United States and China. The core concern, as noted by Gui Yongtao of Peking University, is whether Takaichi can act with necessary caution and prudence to avoid diplomatic missteps, since bold rhetoric could backfire on the global stage despite resonating with voters at home. [para. 1][para. 2][para. 3]

2. On the world stage, there is heightened interest in Japan’s diplomatic direction under Takaichi. On February 9, she reiterated her intent to advance the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” vision and pledged closer ties with key allies — the United States, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, the U.K., Italy, and the Global South. She announced plans to visit the U.S. and meet President Donald Trump at the White House on March 19. Trump, who publicly supported Takaichi prior to the election, congratulated her victory quickly. Japan’s urgency is partly due to fears of “Japan passing”—that Washington might sideline Tokyo in favor of direct engagement with powers like China. [para. 4][para. 5][para. 6][para. 7]

3. Tensions with China have increased since November, driven by Takaichi’s statements suggesting that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a Japanese collective self-defense response due to an “existential crisis,” though she has carefully avoided further hypotheticals since. Meanwhile, Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping appear to be drawing closer—having held positive calls and Trump planning a visit to China in April. This increases Japanese anxieties about unpredictable U.S. strategy shifts, a concern rooted in historical precedents such as Nixon’s and Clinton’s visits to China that bypassed prior Japanese involvement. [para. 8][para. 9][para. 10][para. 11]

4. Takaichi’s upcoming meeting with Trump is strategically timed before Trump’s planned Beijing trip, as she seeks to ensure alignment with Washington. Her electoral landslide gives her additional bargaining power, making Trump more likely to heed her perspectives, especially since her ruling coalition enjoys a two-thirds parliamentary majority, which strengthens her legitimacy and negotiating position. [para. 12]

5. In economic relations, the primary focus is on the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement and Japan’s massive commitment to invest $550 billion in the United States. Following the Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide, Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa traveled to the U.S. to discuss the initial projects outlined under this pact, which emphasizes Japanese investment in U.S. manufacturing and infrastructure in exchange for tariff concessions — with the detail that Trump himself will have final say over project destinations. Japanese companies, however, prefer market-driven investment, while Trump favors state-directed deals, creating a source of friction. Key projects include small modular reactors and data center power systems, with leading Japanese firms participating. The agreement has been criticized in Japan as a “Reiwa-era unequal treaty,” though Japanese officials maintain they will not invest against national interests. [para. 14][para. 15][para. 16][para. 17][para. 18]

6. Domestically, Takaichi is determined to pursue constitutional reforms, specifically to write the Self-Defense Forces into the constitution without directly altering the pacifist Article 9. Achieving this requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority in both houses and a referendum, with her current coalition short of a supermajority in the upper house. Success depends on sustained high approval ratings; political setbacks could halt the reform agenda, as occurred during Abe’s tenure. [para. 20][para. 21][para. 22]

7. China has responded critically to Takaichi’s ambitions, with official warnings that Japan is undermining its pacifist post-war constitution and is seeking remilitarization. The Chinese government has called for international vigilance regarding Tokyo’s purported shift away from military constraints, seeing it as a challenge to the regional and post-war order. [para. 23][para. 24]