Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition

1. The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, now entering its third week, has dashed early hopes for a swift military victory. Instead, circumstances suggest the war may escalate into a prolonged regional standoff, with both sides preparing for a drawn-out engagement rather than a decisive conclusion.[para. 1][para. 2][para. 5]

2. The war began on February 28, following a dramatic U.S.-Israeli strike in Tehran that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s long-serving supreme leader. This decisive action was intended to incapacitate Iran’s leadership and possibly induce political collapse. However, Iran responded rapidly by stabilizing its internal affairs and signaling a readiness for extended resistance, undermining Washington’s strategy and averting any leadership vacuum or unraveling of its core security apparatus. [para. 3][para. 4]

3. For Iran, the immediate challenge after Khamenei’s death was ensuring political continuity. This was addressed by March 8, when Iran’s Assembly of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, the previous leader’s 56-year-old son, as the country’s third supreme leader. Despite external criticism, particularly from the U.S. and Israel, the transition happened smoothly, with the influential Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps quickly pledging allegiance to Mojtaba. This episode underscored the distributed nature of power within Iran’s political system. Mojtaba, in his first official statement on March 12, promised ongoing retaliation and strategic leverage, threatening actions like blocking the Strait of Hormuz, thus indicating a willingness to escalate pressure over time.[para. 6][para. 7][para. 8][para. 9][para. 10]

4. Militarily, the conflict has become a war of attrition. The first weeks saw the U.S. strike over 5,000 targets in Iran, noticeably reducing Iran’s ballistic missile launches (by about 90%). Nevertheless, Iran has continued attacking Israel and U.S. interests across the Gulf via missiles and drones, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure in countries including Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and Kuwait. Iranian military strategy, labeled “mosaic defense,” relies on decentralized operations, enabling continued attacks even if senior command communications are disrupted. Iran’s use of cost-effective drones presents a financial challenge to the U.S. and Israel, as intercepting these drones is disproportionately expensive, potentially turning the conflict into a stalemate that strains Western resources.[para. 12][para. 13][para. 14][para. 16][para. 17][para. 18][para. 19][para. 20][para. 21]

5. The possibility of a drawn-out war has exposed divisions within the U.S. government. On March 9, President Donald Trump predicted a swift conclusion, but Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the campaign was in its early stages and did not dismiss deploying ground troops. Contradicting Trump’s earlier demands for unconditional Iranian surrender, he later suggested negotiations were possible under certain conditions, reflecting pressure from domestic political and economic concerns, especially as oil prices soared to nearly $120 per barrel before retreating due to Trump’s assurances.[para. 23][para. 24][para. 25][para. 26]

6. The conflict has expanded beyond Iran and Israel, affecting the broader region. Iran quickly retaliated against Israel and U.S. positions across the Gulf, prompting widespread activation of air defenses and partial suspensions of civilian flights. Gulf states have shown restraint, primarily limiting their responses to defensive measures and diplomatic condemnation, cautious of being dragged further into a destabilizing war.[para. 29][para. 30][para. 31][para. 32][para. 33]

7. Globally, the war has caused severe disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical pathway for global energy trade. Major oil tankers largely avoid the area, spiking oil prices and causing financial volatility. Prolonged turmoil threatens global supply chains and may hamper central banks’ efforts to control inflation. The future of the conflict remains unpredictable, but Iran’s quick leadership change, its refusal to negotiate, and a resilient military posture indicate Tehran is bracing for a protracted struggle likely to affect global economic stability.[para. 36][para. 37][para. 38][para. 39][para. 40][para. 41]