BUSINESS

China–Middle East Air Cargo Recovers as Routes Shift North From Gulf Hubs

Published: Mar. 17, 2026 3:25 a.m. GMT+8

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The conflict has prompted a major realignment of air freight routes, crippling traditional Gulf hubs and redirecting traffic to new nodes farther north. Photo: VCG

Air cargo flights between the Chinese mainland and the Middle East have recovered to about 80% of their pre-conflict volume, though the region’s freight network is undergoing a rapid restructuring away from traditional Gulf hubs.

The rebound on routes serving China has outpaced the global average, with overall Middle East–related cargo flights still down by more than a third, according to data from flight information provider VariFlight on March 15. For the week from March 8 to 14, a total of 2,192 cargo flights operated in the region, just 64.6% of the 3,392 flights typically seen in a normal week in late February.

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Air cargo flights between China and the Middle East have recovered to about 80% of pre-conflict levels, but traditional Gulf hubs saw volumes drop sharply.
Cargo traffic has shifted northward to hubs like Istanbul, Baku, Cairo, and Riyadh, where volumes now exceed pre-conflict figures.
Outbound shipments from Gulf regions fell 62% week-on-week by March 8; freight rates jumped 28% in a week, and further increases are expected due to ongoing conflict.

AI generated, for reference only

Who’s Who

VariFlight: VariFlight is a flight information provider. The article uses data from VariFlight, dated March 15, to illustrate the rebound of air cargo flights between the Chinese mainland and the Middle East, which has outpaced the global average. Their data also shows a significant shift in the regional air cargo network following recent conflicts.

C.H. Robinson: C.H. Robinson, a global logistics firm, issued a customer notice on March 13. They noted that Emirates is prioritizing the clearance of backlogged shipments, especially those originating from India and South Asia, due to ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East's freight network.

Emirates: Emirates, referred to as 阿联酋航空公司 in Chinese, is focusing on clearing piled-up shipments, particularly from India and South Asia. This comes amid persistent uncertainty and disruption to global logistics following a conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

Cathay Pacific: Cathay Pacific announced on March 10 that it would suspend passenger flights to Dubai and Riyadh. Additionally, its freighter services to Dubai are suspended through March 31, 2026. This decision reflects the ongoing disruption and realignment of air freight routes in the Middle East due to recent conflicts.

WorldACD: WorldACD is a market analyst firm that provides data on air cargo. A March 16 report by WorldACD indicated that outbound shipments from the Middle East plunged by 62% week-on-week, and inbound volume fell by 47% for the week ending March 8. They also noted that the average price for outbound cargo from the Middle East and South Asia jumped 28% week-on-week and 20% year-on-year in the same period. WorldACD anticipates further increases in air cargo prices due to fuel surcharges and war-risk insurance premiums.

AI generated, for reference only

What Happened When

February 28, 2026：: Disruption began after conflict between the U.S. and Iran triggered widespread airspace closures.

March 7, 2026：: Commercial flights in Dubai were briefly suspended following a drone attack.

Week ending March 8, 2026：: Outbound shipments from the Gulf region plunged 62% week-on-week while capacity was slashed by 70%. Inbound volume fell 47%. Outbound cargo from Dubai to the U.S. plunged 82% and shipments to Europe fell 38%.

As of March 8, 2026：: The average price for outbound cargo from the Middle East and South Asia jumped 28% week-on-week and 20% year-on-year.

March 8, 2026 to March 14, 2026：: A total of 2,192 cargo flights operated in the region, just 64.6% of normal weekly flights for late February 2026. Cargo traffic through Doha and Bahrain hubs dropped to 6.7% and 2.7% of normal levels, respectively, while the UAE recovered to 38.9%. Hubs in Istanbul, Baku, Cairo and Riyadh saw flights increase to 106.4%, 157.8%, 107.8%, and 108.8% of their usual weekly volumes respectively. Hong Kong to Istanbul, Baku, and Riyadh route volumes expanded to 141%, 193%, and 177% of February 2026 levels.

March 10, 2026：: Cathay Pacific announced it would suspend passenger flights to Dubai and Riyadh, and freighter services to Dubai, through March 31, 2026.

March 13, 2026：: C.H. Robinson stated in a customer notice that Emirates is focusing on clearing piled-up shipments, particularly from India and South Asia.