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China Equities Expected to Outperform Global Markets in 2026, UBS Says

Published: Mar. 17, 2026 12:39 p.m. GMT+8

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Chinese equities are likely to outperform global markets by more than 5% this year as international institutional investors gradually return to the region, according to UBS Group AG.

Key benchmarks such as the MSCI China Index could rise between 15% and 20% in 2026 in absolute terms, Thomas Fang, head of China global markets at UBS, told Caixin on Monday.

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This is an AI-generated English rendering of original reporting or commentary published by Caixin Media. In the event of any discrepancies, the Chinese version shall prevail.

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UBS predicts Chinese equities will outperform global markets by over 5% in 2024, with MSCI China Index expected to rise 15–20% in 2026.
Geopolitical tensions have shifted some investment to safe havens, but global capital is gradually reallocating to China, with Hong Kong seen as increasingly attractive.
Recent data shows $31 billion in outflows from emerging markets (excluding China), while Chinese stocks saw continued net buying by hedge funds.

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Who’s Who

UBS Group AG: UBS Group AG predicts Chinese equities will outperform global markets by over 5% this year. Thomas Fang, UBS's head of China global markets, expects the MSCI China Index to rise 15-20% in 2026. This reflects a gradual reallocation of global capital to Chinese assets, despite geopolitical tensions. UBS notes increasing capital and talent commitments to China by major institutional investors.

Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs data suggests a shift in global capital flows, with emerging-market equities excluding China experiencing significant net foreign outflows after a U.S.-Israel military strike. Despite this, their report indicates that hedge funds have been net buyers of Chinese stocks overall since the beginning of March, even as they net sold in other Asian markets like Japan and Hong Kong.

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