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Rising Fuel Prices Could Lift China’s EV Sales, Industry Body Says

Published: Mar. 24, 2026  5:06 p.m.  GMT+8
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A gas station at Shijiazhuang, Hebei. Photo: VCG
A gas station at Shijiazhuang, Hebei. Photo: VCG

A surge in global oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Iran war is raising fuel costs for Chinese drivers and could renew momentum for electric-vehicle (EV) sales, after a policy-driven slowdown left the sector on weaker footing at the start of the year.

China’s passenger-car market had shown signs of tilting toward gasoline vehicles in the first two months of 2026, as subsidies were scaled back and tax breaks for new-energy vehicles became less generous. But the jump in oil prices is now changing the calculus for consumers, potentially lifting EV demand.

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  • Rising global oil prices from the U.S.-Iran war have increased fuel costs in China and may boost EV and hybrid demand.
  • In early 2026, gasoline vehicles outsold EVs as NEV subsidies declined, with NEV market share dropping to 38.6% in January and 44.9% in February.
  • The China Passenger Car Association estimates NEV penetration will rebound to 52.9% in March, led by rising auto fuel prices and hybrid vehicle launches.
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