China Poised to Overtake U.S. as Top Public Science Funder Within Two Years, Report Says

1. A recent analysis by the Nature Index, using data from the Frontiers of Science and Innovation Policy (FSIP) program at the University of California, San Diego, indicates that China is poised to surpass the United States as the world’s largest funder of public science within the next two to three years. This represents a major shift in global research and development leadership. Over the decade from 2013 to 2023, China's government research and development (R&D) spending, adjusted for purchasing power parity, surged by about 90% to $133 billion, while U.S. spending rose by only 12% to $155 billion. Experts like Robert Conn estimate China may overtake the U.S. in this metric as early as 2028 or 2029, a development considered a potential watershed for the world scientific community, where the U.S. has been the traditional leader since World War II. [para. 1][para. 2][para. 3][para. 4]

2. The structure of China’s research investment is undergoing transformation, moving away from being solely state-driven toward a model involving increased private sector and social capital participation. According to China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), the country targets an average annual increase of at least 7% in total R&D funding, including both government and non-government sources. Simon Baker from the Nature Index highlights the growing role of the private sector in boosting China’s research funding and output, suggesting this could elevate China’s scientific productivity further. [para. 5][para. 6][para. 7]

3. Despite rapid growth, a significant gap persists between China and the U.S. in basic research, which is crucial for long-term technological advancement. In 2023, China spent approximately $53 billion on basic research—less than half of U.S. expenditure, which was about $120 billion. However, China’s basic research investment more than doubled over the last decade, compared to a roughly 50% increase in the U.S. The 14th Five-Year Plan set a goal for basic research funding to exceed 8% of total R&D spending by 2025, but the actual share reached just 7.08%. Projections suggest that if current trends continue, China could surpass the U.S. in basic research spending sometime in the next decade, potentially shifting the axis of global scientific competition to foundational innovation. [para. 8][para. 9][para. 10][para. 11]

4. The geographic landscape of global research activity is also shifting. As China continues to channel more resources into research and upgrades its scientific infrastructure, it is attracting international talent and enhancing the global reputations of its universities and research institutions. However, international collaborations involving China have declined, as indicated by a drop in the percentage of internationally co-authored Chinese research papers from nearly 50% in 2020 to just over 30% before August 2025. Meanwhile, China is bolstering ties with developing regions—collaborative health sciences research with Africa jumped 31% between 2022 and 2025. In contrast, U.S. international student enrollment has fallen by 17% for the 2025-2026 academic year. [para. 12][para. 13][para. 14]

5. Experts caution that robust scientific progress requires not just scale of investment, but also system efficiency and synergy among industry, academia, and government. Some analysts warn that figures based on purchasing power parity may overstate China’s effective research spending, as many research expenses must be paid at international rates. Nevertheless, there are broad calls within the scientific community to maintain open collaboration—an imperative for tackling global challenges like climate change, infectious diseases, and energy transitions. Both China and the U.S., as the top two science investors, play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of solutions to these transnational issues, and continued cooperation is viewed as crucial for global public good. [para. 15][para. 16][para. 17][para. 18]