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Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Ease China Solar Glut, Analysts Say

Published: Apr. 7, 2026  5:02 p.m.  GMT+8
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BloombergNEF projects that newly installed global solar capacity will reach around 648 GW in 2026, down slightly by 0.7% year-on-year. Photo: VCG
BloombergNEF projects that newly installed global solar capacity will reach around 648 GW in 2026, down slightly by 0.7% year-on-year. Photo: VCG

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the resulting volatility in energy prices are reviving debate over whether energy-security fears could give renewable power a fresh lift, though analysts say any near-term demand boost is unlikely to resolve the severe overcapacity in China’s solar industry.

“From the long-term energy transition perspective, geopolitical conflicts do reinforce the importance of renewable energy, but it is difficult to improve the overcapacity in China’s solar industry in the short term,” a solar industry insider told Caixin.

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  • Middle East conflict revives renewable energy debate but unlikely to resolve China's solar overcapacity short-term due to grid, land, and demand constraints.
  • Global solar installs projected to fall 0.7% to 648 GW in 2026; China's 2025 capacities include modules at 1,100 GW, nearly double global demand.
  • Overseas residential storage demand grows; module prices rise 10% to $0.11/W, but weak Chinese domestic demand persists.
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Who’s Who
BloombergNEF
BloombergNEF analyst Tan Youru notes solar demand faces grid, land, and power constraints. Unlike 2022's Europe surge, the market is saturated at >80 GW annual additions. Global solar installations projected to fall 0.7% to 648 GW in 2026 due to saturation. (43 words)
CSC Financial Co. Ltd.
CSC Financial Co. Ltd. noted in a March 2026 report that the current conflict's impact on energy prices is milder than in 2022, but rising grid costs and end-user electricity prices are solidifying investment returns for residential and commercial energy storage systems.
InfoLink
InfoLink reports overseas solar module prices averaged $0.11/W from March 23-28, up 10% month-on-month, driven by China's solar export tax rebate cancellation and higher European gas prices. It notes Chinese manufacturers are tightening low-price order approvals but cautious on price hikes amid weak domestic demand.
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