Analysis: China Banks Split as Margins Squeeze and Retail Risks Rise
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China’s major banks showed a mixed earnings performance in 2025, as persistent pressure on margins and rising retail credit risks underscored the sector’s ongoing structural challenges.
The “Big Six” state-owned banks recorded an average revenue growth rate of 2.41% last year, up 2.24 percentage points from 2024. Net profit rose 1.72% on average, up 0.08 percentage points.
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- Big Six banks: revenue +2.41%, net profit +1.72%; joint-stock banks: revenue -2.18%, net profit -1.34%.
- Net interest margins declined; non-interest income grew ~20% for BOC/CCB/ABC, fell for most joint-stock banks.
- Retail NPL ratios rose (e.g., ICBC credit cards +111 bps to 4.61%); banks emphasize cost control, risk management, internationalization.
1. China's major banks exhibited mixed earnings in 2025, pressured by margins and retail credit risks [para. 1].
2. The "Big Six" state-owned banks achieved average revenue growth of 2.41%, up 2.24 percentage points from 2024, with net profit rising 1.72%, up 0.08 points [para. 2].
3. ICBC and CCB saw revenue growth resume, while BOC led with 4.48% expansion [para. 3].
4. Conversely, the 10 listed joint-stock banks averaged 2.18% revenue decline, worsening from 0.64% in 2024, and net profit fell 1.34% from 2.45% growth [para. 4].
5. Ping An Bank, China Zheshang Bank, and China Everbright Bank faced steepest revenue drops [para. 5].
6. Differences stem from income structures and market sensitivity; Big Six gained from fee/commission recovery and stable markets, joint-stock banks hit by bond volatility per GF Securities [para. 6].
7. Net interest margins declined sector-wide, though slower for some, pressuring net interest income [para. 8].
8. CMB President Wang Liang anticipates narrowing NIM decline but significant NII pressure in 2026 due to weak credit demand, competition, and stable liability costs [para. 9][para. 10].
9. ICBC's Yao Mingde expects NII growth in 2026 absent major rate cuts [para. 11].
10. Non-interest income buffered Big Six, with BOC, CCB, ABC up ~20%; joint-stock banks mostly declined due to fair-value asset exposure and bond volatility, per GF's Ni Jun [para. 12][para. 13].
11. Fee/commission income recovered: all Big Six grew, six joint-stock banks turned positive, three narrowed declines [para. 14].
12. Retail asset quality deteriorated; personal loan NPL ratios rose for Big Six—ICBC +43 bps, ABC +31 bps, BoCom +50 bps; ICBC credit cards hit 4.61% (+111 bps) [para. 16].
13. BoCom's Gu Bin highlighted ongoing retail/small business strain [para. 17].
14. Banks bolstered controls: ICBC formed personal credit department, others disposed NPLs [para. 18].
15. Big Six cost-to-income ratio improved to 35.27%, down 53 bps [para. 19].
16. Lenders pursue overseas growth; Industrial Bank's Lü Jiajin targets top-tier international status in 2-3 years [para. 20][para. 21].
17. BOC's overseas business yielded 28% of profit, outpacing domestic growth amid rising cross-border demand and yuan internationalization, per President Zhang Hui [para. 22][para. 23].
(Word count: 498)
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd.
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC) returned to revenue growth in 2025 as one of the "Big Six" banks. Personal loan NPL ratio rose 43 bps; credit card NPL jumped 111 bps to 4.61%. Net interest income expected to grow this year (no major rate cuts). Established dedicated personal credit department. (54 words)
- China Construction Bank Corp.
- China Construction Bank Corp. (CCB) returned to revenue growth in 2025, amid the Big Six banks' average 2.41% revenue rise. It reported a roughly 20% increase in net non-interest income, alongside BOC and ABC.
- Bank of China Ltd.
- Bank of China Ltd. (BOC) posted the fastest revenue growth at 4.48% among China's Big Six banks in 2025, with ~20% rise in net non-interest income. Overseas business contributed 28% of total profit, outpacing domestic growth amid rising cross-border demand.
- Ping An Bank Co. Ltd.
- Ping An Bank Co. Ltd. recorded some of the steepest revenue declines among the 10 listed national joint-stock banks, which saw average revenue fall 2.18% and net profit drop 1.34% in 2025.
- China Zheshang Bank Co. Ltd.
- China Zheshang Bank Co. Ltd., a listed national joint-stock bank, recorded one of the steepest revenue declines in 2025. The group averaged a 2.18% revenue drop and 1.34% net profit decline, worsening from 2024.
- China Everbright Bank Co. Ltd.
- China Everbright Bank Co. Ltd. recorded one of the steepest revenue declines among the 10 listed national joint-stock banks in 2025, as the group saw average revenue fall 2.18%. (28 words)
- GF Securities Co. Ltd.
- GF Securities Co. Ltd. stated that the "Big Six" banks benefited from fee/commission income recovery and resilient markets, while joint-stock banks faced bond market volatility. Analyst Ni Jun attributed joint-stock banks' non-interest income declines to higher exposure to fair-value financial assets.
- China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd.
- China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd. (CMB), a joint-stock bank, faces ongoing net interest margin pressure. President Wang Liang stated the margin decline may narrow in 2026, but net interest income pressure persists due to weak credit demand, competition on loan yields, and limited liability cost reductions. Joint-stock banks averaged 2.18% revenue drop and 1.34% profit decline in 2025.
- Agricultural Bank of China Ltd.
- Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. (ABC), one of the Big Six banks, reported ~20% growth in net non-interest income. Its personal loan NPL ratio rose 31 bps. It contributed to the group's average revenue growth of 2.41% and net profit growth of 1.72%, amid margin pressure and rising retail risks. (54 words)
- Bank of Communications Co. Ltd.
- Bank of Communications Co. Ltd. (BoCom), a Big Six state-owned bank, saw its personal loan NPL ratio rise 50 bps in 2025. Executive VP Gu Bin noted high retail credit risk pressure, with asset quality in retail and small business lending expected to remain strained this year. (48 words)
- Industrial Bank Co. Ltd.
- Industrial Bank Co. Ltd., a joint-stock bank, emphasizes internationalization for growth. Chairman Lü Jiajin stated it’s key to “prosperity and decline,” aiming to rank its international business among the top tier of joint-stock banks within 2-3 years. (42 words)
- CX Weekly Magazine
Apr. 10, 2026, Issue 13
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