China’s Premature Cancer Deaths Fall Sharply, but Regional Disparities Persist
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China’s premature mortality rate from cancer has dropped significantly over the past three decades, though the country is projected to miss a key United Nations target by about five years, according to a new study.
Between 1990 and 2023, China’s cancer-related premature mortality rate fell to 6.66% from 13.11%, an average annual decline of 1.93%. Despite this progress, current trends suggest China will not achieve the U.N. sustainable development goal of premature death risk reduction targeted for 2030 until around 2035.
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- China's cancer premature mortality rate fell from 13.11% (1990) to 6.66% (2023), annual decline 1.93%, but will miss UN 2030 target until ~2035.
- Steepest drops in Hodgkin lymphoma (4.89% annually), stomach/esophageal cancers; rises in multiple myeloma (2.44%), pancreatic/breast/kidney; lung cancer deadliest at 1.97%.
- Regional/gender disparities persist; absolute premature deaths rose 14.77% to 1.26M in 2023 due to aging; calls for targeted screening, risk management.
1. China's cancer premature mortality rate dropped from 13.11% in 1990 to 6.66% in 2023, a 1.93% average annual decline, but trends indicate missing the UN 2030 goal (one-third reduction in non-communicable disease premature death risk) until around 2035 [para. 1][para. 2].
2. The study, led by Shen Hongbing from the Chinese CDC and published in The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific, uses 2023 Global Burden of Disease data for the first nationwide assessment of trends across 29 cancers in provinces and regions [para. 3].
3. Premature mortality is the WHO metric for deaths aged 30-69; UN's 2015 SDG targets one-third reduction by 2030, adopted in China's Healthy China 2030 [para. 4].
4. Steepest declines: Hodgkin lymphoma (4.89% annual), stomach (3.80%), nasopharyngeal (3.55%), esophageal (3.40%), due to H. pylori eradication, screening, and hygiene [para. 5].
5. Rising rates: multiple myeloma (+2.44% annually everywhere); regional increases in men's pancreatic, breast, kidney cancers, linked to obesity, diabetes, lack of early symptoms [para. 6][para. 7].
6. Lung cancer deadliest in 2023 (1.97% rate, ~353,000 premature deaths, 30% of total); top for men: lung/stomach/esophageal; women: lung/breast/stomach [para. 8].
7. Highest 2023 male rates: Heilongjiang (11.44%), Chongqing (11.15%), Sichuan (10.49%), Liaoning (10.26%), Shandong (10.00%); women: Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia. Lowest: developed east/south, Hong Kong women at 2.75% [para. 9].
8. Fastest declines: Hubei (2.89%), Shanghai (2.75%), Hong Kong (2.71% annual), on track for 2030; northwest/north/southwest lag [para. 10].
9. Gender gap widening: women lower rates, faster declines, due to men's higher smoking/alcohol/obesity; women to hit targets sooner [para. 11].
10. To meet 2030: male lung cancer needs 3.74x faster decline, liver 1.64x; screening-preventable cancers (stomach/esophageal/cervical/nasopharyngeal) on track [para. 12].
11. Despite rate drops amid aging, absolute premature deaths rose 14.77% to ~1.26 million of 2.56 million total cancer deaths in 2023; focus beyond 70+ needed [para. 13][para. 14].
12. Data limitations: underreporting in less developed areas may underestimate rates [para. 15].
13. Recommendations: tailored interventions, expand screening/immunization, manage risks, promote healthy lifestyles [para. 16].
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- Caixin Media (财新传媒) is the organization where Zhou Xinyi, an intern, works. The article on China's declining cancer premature mortality rates credits her contribution.
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