Commentary: AI Hardware Demand Singlehandedly Drives Asian Export Growth
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Since the start of 2026, major economies have posted export figures that broadly beat market expectations. But peel back the aggregate data, and a stark reality emerges: global trade is not experiencing a broad-based recovery. Instead, it is being single-handedly propelled by the artificial intelligence boom.
AI-related products have become the core engine of China’s export growth. In the first quarter of 2026, AI exports accounted for more than half of the country’s unexpected export surge. During this period, AI-related export growth rebounded to 40.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. This robust performance lifted China’s total export growth to 17.1%. If we strip out AI-related goods, that overall growth figure drops dramatically to a mere 9.8%. Consequently, AI products now make up nearly 22% of China’s total exports.
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- Since 2026, global trade growth is driven by AI exports, not broad recovery; China's Q1 AI exports caused 40.2% growth, lifting total to 17.1% (9.8% without), now 22% of exports.
- Asia-wide: South Korea AI exports up 114% (total 37.8% drops to 6% without), Taiwan 75.8%, Hong Kong 41.2%; China's focus on intermediate inputs like chips.
- US AI infrastructure demand fuels Asian supply chains via ASEAN, South Korea, Hong Kong re-exports; momentum robust per semiconductor sales.
- Shenwan Hongyuan Securities
- Zhao Wei, the article's author and chief economist, is affiliated with Shenwan Hongyuan Securities.
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