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Moody’s Raises China Outlook to Stable on Economic Resilience

Published: Apr. 28, 2026  6:35 p.m.  GMT+8
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Moody’s Ratings said Monday that it has revised China’s sovereign credit outlook to stable from negative, citing economic resilience and manageable debt risks.

The agency affirmed China’s long-term sovereign rating at A1. It last changed the outlook in late 2023, when concerns over fiscal pressures and the property downturn prompted a downgrade.

Moody’s said a shift in policy focus toward high-productivity sectors has helped mitigate the impact of the property sector’s downsizing, though a prolonged property slump continues to weigh on consumption. Growth is expected to remain largely dependent on investment and exports.

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  • Moody’s revised China’s sovereign credit outlook to stable from negative, affirming A1 rating.
  • Cites economic resilience, policy shift to high-productivity sectors; expects 4.5% GDP growth this year, 4.2% next.
  • Debt to rise from 68.5% of GDP last year to 82.4% next year; risks from local govt off-balance-sheet debt.
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Moody’s Ratings
Moody’s Ratings revised China’s sovereign credit outlook to stable from negative, affirming the A1 long-term rating. It cited economic resilience, manageable debt risks, and policy shifts toward high-productivity sectors amid property slump. GDP growth: 4.5% this year, 4.2% next. Debt to rise to 82.4% of GDP next year.
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