Commentary: The AI Economy Is Accelerating the Global Baby Bust

1. Global fertility rates are declining rapidly, with the World Bank reporting the total fertility rate (TFR) dropping to 2.2 in 2023 from 2.7 in 2000; two-thirds of countries now have TFRs below the 2.1 replacement level, and China's TFR reached 1.0 in 2023, projected to fall further by 2025 [para. 1]. AI is expected to accelerate this trend despite aiding reproductive medicine [para. 3].

2. AI depresses fertility by intensifying pressures in career, entertainment, and family life, where material costs, time, and emotional rewards compete [para. 3]. In workplaces, AI automates routine tasks, reducing entry-level jobs and wages while demanding continuous skill investment for high-skill roles, thus slowing hiring for young workers and accelerating work pace [para. 4].

3. AI provides endless personalized entertainment like chatbots and virtual companions, diverting time from other activities [para. 5]. It also raises child-rearing costs as parents invest heavily in education to compete in an AI-driven job market [para. 6]. Overall, AI enriches careers and leisure but strains resources, making parenting relatively costlier and lowering fertility [para. 7].

4. Policy countermeasures include improving work schedules with flexible hours, remote work, and shorter weeks, leveraging AI efficiency; studies confirm this boosts performance and work-life balance [para. 10]. Lighten financial burdens by raising child allowances—China's at 0.07% of GDP in 2025 and South Korea's at 0.35%, far below 1-1.3% in higher-birth-rate nations—and reforming education to reduce tutoring costs [para. 11].

5. Reduce time losses via affordable public childcare and early education [para. 12]. Enhance parenting rewards through family-friendly products like parent-child activities and travel to rival digital entertainment [para. 13].

6. Central fiscal action is needed to address resource misallocation in the AI era: timing mismatches between childbearing and careers, cost-benefit imbalances (families pay, society benefits), and location issues (local funding, talent migration) [para. 15]. Markets can't fix this; require national transfers, universal allowances, and childcare investments to stabilize populations, skills, spending, and innovation without inflation [para. 16].

7. Human innovation relies on population size; AI replicates intellect but lacks biological resilience, risking stagnation without reproduction [para. 18]. Retain human control over innovation via "Innovationism," emphasizing discovery and transmission; shrinking populations heighten obsolescence risks [para. 19]. Geoffrey Hinton warns of AI dominance; optimal futures need fertility reversal for bold innovation [para. 20]. Nations like the US and China gain from large populations for data, talent, and innovation cycles [para. 21].

8. Bottom line: AI prioritizes resource-intensive careers and entertainment, elevating child-rearing costs; responses demand family policies, burden reductions, and fiscal support for economic, innovative, and civilizational survival [para. 23]. Author: Liang Jianzhang, Trip.com chairman and Peking University professor [para. 24].