FINANCE

Morgan Stanley Raises China Growth Forecast as Exports Power Uneven Recovery

Published: May. 14, 2026 6:38 p.m. GMT+8

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Workers manufacture four-wheel all-terrain vehicles for export at a workshop in Wuyi county, Zhejiang province, on May 13, 2026. Photo: VCG

Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for China’s economic growth this year, citing stronger-than-expected momentum from exports tied to global artificial intelligence (AI) and the green energy transition, while warning that the country’s domestic economy remains weak and increasingly divided.

The Wall Street bank lifted its projection on May 13 for China’s 2026 real gross domestic product growth to 4.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from its previous forecast.

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Morgan Stanley raised China’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% (+0.1 pp) due to strong AI/green energy exports.
"K-shaped" recovery: exports +10% this year, China global trade share from 15% to 17% by 2030; consumption +3.7%.
Property sector subtracts 2 pp from nominal GDP; recovery narrow, mainly Shanghai.

AI generated, for reference only

Who’s Who

Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 China GDP growth forecast to 4.8% (up 0.1 pp), citing strong AI- and green energy-driven exports (expected 10% growth this year). It warns of a "K-shaped" recovery, with weak consumption (3.7% in 2026) and property sector dragging ~2 pp off nominal GDP.

AI generated, for reference only