BUSINESS

Trump’s China Visit Stabilizes Outlook for U.S. Soybean Trade Deal

Published: May. 18, 2026 12:00 p.m. GMT+8

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A soybean farmer shovels soybeans in a barn on their farm near Wahoo, the U.S., on April 6. Photo: VCG

U.S. President Donald Trump concluded a three-day state visit to China on Friday, helping stabilize market expectations for American soybean exports under a multiyear trade agreement.

The visit reaffirmed a landmark pact requiring China to purchase 87 million tons of U.S. soybeans over three years, while comments from U.S. officials cooled traders’ expectations for a broader agricultural deal.

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Explore the story in 30 seconds

Trump's China visit reaffirmed a 3-year, 87-million-ton soybean pact; 12 million tons from late 2025 are largely fulfilled.
Purchases toward the 25-million-ton annual target haven't started; Treasury Secretary Bessent dampened hopes for additional near-term deals.
A 10% "fentanyl tariff" on China persists; market awaits possible suspension to boost private-sector soybean buying.

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Who’s Who

Argus: Argus is a commodity pricing agency. Its representative told Caixin that China largely fulfilled its initial 12 million-ton soybean purchase commitment under a 2025 trade deal, but forward buying for the 25 million-ton annual target has yet to begin.

Bloomberg: According to the article, Bloomberg reported that U.S. agricultural traders hoped China would expand soybean import commitments during Trump's visit, amid expectations of rising U.S. production.

Bank of China Ltd.: Bank of China Ltd.’s New York branch signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) to promote sustainable development across the soybean trade chain during President Trump’s visit. The agreement signals market confidence in China’s planned procurement of 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans this year.

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What Happened When

2025-11：: Under a trade agreement, China committed to purchasing at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025.

Between 2025-11 and 2026-01：: China largely fulfilled its initial commitment via centralized purchases by state-owned firms, per Argus; shipments expected to clear customs by June 2026.

2026-01 to 2026-03：: China imported 3.4 million tons of soybeans from the U.S., per customs data.

2026-05-14：: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the existing three-year purchase commitment meant 'beans are really all taken care of'; Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures fell nearly 3%.

2026-05-14：: Bank of China Ltd.’s New York branch signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) to promote sustainable development along the soybean trade chain.

2026-05-15：: U.S. President Donald Trump concluded a three-day state visit to China, helping stabilize market expectations for American soybean exports under the multiyear trade agreement.

As of the article date (2026-05-15)：: Purchases toward the 25 million-ton annual target for subsequent years (2026, 2027, 2028) had yet to begin; China had not booked cargoes for the core U.S. export season (September 2026–January 2027).

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