In Depth: China’s Housing Market Flashes Signs of Life in Core Cities
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On May 3, the banquet hall of a Hilton Garden Inn in Shenzhen was filled to capacity. Within 40 minutes, buyers had snapped up all 92 apartments at Longhu Guancui, a newly launched residential project, making it the city’s first development in 2026 to sell out on its opening day.
Such scenes have been rare in China’s property market in recent years. But since March, transaction activity has shown signs of a sudden revival in core metropolitan areas, particularly in the country’s four tier-one cities. The localized rebound has exceeded many industry expectations, raising hopes that China’s deepest and longest property downturn in recent history may be nearing a floor.
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- July 2023：
- Politburo directive acknowledged a major change in supply-demand dynamics in China's housing market.
- March 2025：
- Shanghai existing-home prices began a period of decline.
- December 2025：
- Shanghai existing-home prices had fallen a cumulative 15% since March 2025.
- 2025：
- National building standards were upgraded (advantage for Longhu Guancui project).
- Start of 2026：
- Declines in existing-home listings and suburban vacancy rates in tier-one cities noted by UBS.
- March 2026：
- Transaction activity showed signs of a sudden revival in core metropolitan areas, particularly in tier-one cities. New-home transaction volumes in tier-one cities jumped 210% month-on-month. Existing-home sales in Shanghai reached 31,000 units (highest in five years); Beijing recorded nearly 20,000 transactions (15-month high). Synchronized monthly rise in new- and existing-home prices began, marking a break from more than a year of declines.
- April 2026：
- Existing-home prices in tier-one cities rose 0.4% month-on-month; new-home prices edged up 0.1%. New-home transaction volumes in tier-one cities remained 4% higher year-on-year. Luxury projects in Shenzhen (China Merchants Haiyan Mansion and Guanchao Mansion) recorded about 90% sell-through rates on launch days. Average opening-day sales for new real estate projects in first-tier cities occurred. UBS report reflected improving sentiment. Goldman Sachs projected housing markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen could bottom out by late 2026.
- Late April 2026：
- Communist Party's Politburo pledged to continue efforts to stabilize the property market.
- By end of April 2026：
- Area of unsold commercial housing nationwide slipped 0.5% year-on-year to 778 million square meters. Estimated inventory-clearance cycle across 50 representative cities lengthened to 24.1 months.
- First four months of 2026：
- National real estate investment fell 13.7%.
- Early May 2026：
- Trading volumes in Shanghai and Beijing remained strong through the holiday period.
- May 3, 2026：
- All 92 apartments at Longhu Guancui in Shenzhen sold out within 40 minutes of launch.
- May 13, 2026：
- UBS report reflected improving sentiment.
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