China’s Retirement Age Overhaul Triggers Confidence Crisis Among Workers, Study Shows

1. A new academic study reveals that China's recent statutory retirement age increase has severely undermined public confidence in the state pension fund, yet most workers have not altered their financial behaviors. [para. 1][para. 2] The research team, led by He Jingwei from Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, conducted an online survey experiment with about 8,000 participants and tested three hypothetical delayed retirement scenarios. [para. 7][para. 8]

2. The study found a critical "expectation divergence"—the gap between the government-mandated retirement age and individuals' personal ideal age—which strongly influences people's willingness to adjust attitudes and behaviors. [para. 9][para. 10] Regardless of the delay intensity, respondents overwhelmingly preferred early retirement, a trend linked to "lying flat" and "involution" mentalities among younger generations in China. [para. 4][para. 5][para. 6]

3. Delayed retirement policy signals were perceived as evidence that the pension fund faces substantial risks, causing public confidence to drop to about 6.67 out of 10 and expectations of full payouts to 6.86. [para. 11][para. 12] Despite this decline in institutional faith, actual contribution behaviors remained largely unchanged, as most workers prefer to maintain current payment standards while conditions permit. [para. 13]

4. Among civil servants and state-sponsored employees ("within the system"), the drop in confidence was largest and attitudes most pessimistic. [para. 14] The sample also included over 1,000 flexible employment workers, many without any safety net, who favor immediate cash earnings, with confirmed trends of active social security withdrawals. [para. 15] As automation replaces human labor, the informal workforce outside the system may swell, worsening post-retirement risks compounded by the "age 35 phenomenon." [para. 16]

5. Gig economy workers with unstable employment prioritize medical insurance over pensions when forced to choose, as illness is an immediate risk while pensions are distant. [para. 3][para. 19] Those already enrolled in unemployment insurance tend to continue contributions, valuing even modest benefits of over 1,000 yuan ($148) per month. [para. 17][para. 18] Researchers recommend a multi-insurance linkage policy to address this vulnerability. [para. 3][para. 19]

6. The study proposes stronger actuarial balance, better expectation management, and offering greater pension incentives for voluntary delayed retirement, as current formulas effectively encourage early retirement. [para. 20][para. 21] China officially published its gradual retirement delay plan in September 2024, sparking societal backlash, and many scholars argue the reform was too small a step. [para. 22]

7. The experiment used infographic-style prompts mimicking local government social media, with three experimental groups and one control group. [para. 23] The survey measured attitudes (confidence in basic pension, full payout expectations, perception of medical and long-term care insurance) and behaviors (readiness to alter contributions, willingness for third-pillar private pensions, personal retirement timeline adjustments). [para. 24]