BUSINESS

Greater Bay Area Warehouse Vacancies Hit Record High as Supply Outruns Demand

Published: Jun. 18, 2026 5:03 a.m. GMT+8

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The average vacancy rate for non-bonded high-standard warehouses in the Greater Bay Area climbed 6.6 percentage points from a year earlier. Photo: VCG

The vacancy rate for high-standard warehouses in the Greater Bay Area rose to a record high in 2025, as a surge in new supply far outstripped leasing demand from cross-border e-commerce operators.

The glut points to a broader shift in the region’s logistics property market, which has moved from rapid expansion into a tenant-led correction amid geopolitical tensions and changing retailer strategies.

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Greater Bay Area high-standard warehouse vacancy hit a record 15.2% in 2025, with rent index falling 12.4%, as new supply surged to 4.8 million sqm while net absorption lagged at 2.7 million sqm.
Cross-border e-commerce pullback due to U.S.-China tariff uncertainty and a shift to self-built warehouses drove the glut. Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou saw vacancy jump 13 pp to 22.9%; Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing was more resilient at 13.6%.
Another 9.2 million sqm of supply is expected in 2026, nearly double 2025’s level, intensifying leasing pressure as tenants gain bargaining power. Landlords are offering rent discounts and longer rent-free periods.

AI generated, for reference only

Savills: Savills is a real estate services firm that reported a record high vacancy rate of 15.2% for high-standard warehouses in the Greater Bay Area in 2025. The firm noted a 12.4% rent decline, 4.8 million sqm of new supply, and projected 9.2 million sqm more in 2026. Xie Jingyu, head of Savills' South China research, commented on shifting bargaining power.

Cushman & Wakefield: Cushman & Wakefield reported that Shenzhen's high-standard warehouse vacancy rate rose to 30.8% in Q1 2026. The firm also stated leasing pressure is expected to increase as manufacturing demand plateaus and cross-border e-commerce firms shift focus to overseas warehouses.

AI generated, for reference only