1. In the era of Trump 2.0, world politicians face the unavoidable challenge of handling an unconventional and unpredictable U.S. president. [para. 1] The Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, once a steadfast European ally of Donald Trump, publicly turned against him after Trump claimed she had “begged” for photo opportunities; Meloni bluntly rebuked him on social media, calling the claim a complete fabrication and the attacks “senseless and unprovoked.” [para. 2][para. 3]
2. Meloni’s split follows Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s declaration at the Davos forum in early 2026 that the postwar U.S.-led global order was dead, illustrating immense fractures caused by Trump’s return. [para. 4] Since returning to the White House, the U.S. has drifted further from European allies on trade and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. [para. 5]
3. Meloni, sharing Trump’s populist outlook, was the sole European leader invited to his inauguration and served as a private back channel between Europe and the U.S. [para. 6] She previously broke ranks with European nations to defend Trump’s attempts to annex Greenland and the initial phases of the conflict involving Iran. [para. 7] However, as the Iran-related conflict dragged on, Europe’s economy deteriorated, exposing Italy. [para. 8]
4. Italy’s energy dependence became critical: a tenth of its natural gas imports and 35% of liquefied natural gas imports come from Qatar, which suffered at least 17% LNG export capacity paralysis in the Iran conflict, requiring two to three years to restore. [para. 9] The conflict, launched by Trump alongside Israel, burdened European countries with unwanted fallout. [para. 10] Additionally, Trump’s attacks on the newly appointed pope forced Meloni to defend the pontiff, striking a sensitive nerve in Italy. [para. 11]
5. These events made backing Trump political poison across most of Europe. [para. 12] The defeat of Meloni’s government in a national referendum served as a wake-up call, showing that continuing as Trump’s champion would invite deeper voter backlash; cutting ties was inevitable. [para. 13] The rupture underscores the transatlantic divide: despite Meloni’s alignment with Trump, Italy traditionally had pro-American elite circles, with participants at Council for the United States and Italy meetings prioritizing the geopolitical relationship despite reservations about U.S. unilateralism. [para. 14][para. 15]
6. Following the U.S.-Italy shouting match, three distinct strategies emerged for traditional allies engaging with the Trump administration. [para. 16] The mainstream approach is “managing without breaking,” used by most of the Western world, including Europe, and allies like South Korea, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. [para. 17] These nations rely on the U.S. for security while maintaining deep trade ties; Canada exemplifies this with 70% of its exports to the U.S. [para. 18] Although the U.S. opposes continuing the Russia-Ukraine war, its intelligence and weapons remain vital for Ukraine, and NATO would be difficult to imagine without U.S. participation, so leaders strive for superficial harmony. [para. 19][para. 20]
7. The second approach is wholehearted embrace, limited to economies like Japan, the Philippines, and China’s Taiwan region, which lack leverage to hedge and are more dependent on U.S. security due to anxiety over China’s rise; minor disputes do not derail the core alliance. [para. 21][para. 22] The third category is openly severing ties, currently only the left-wing Spanish government of Pedro Sánchez and Meloni’s administration, though they could revert to the first category if governments change or strategic needs shift. [para. 23][para. 24] The analysis is by Huang Shan, a London-based adviser for Caixin Insight. [para. 25]
AI generated, for reference only
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