BUSINESS

China Auto Exports Expected to Near 10 Million in 2026 Amid Overseas Push

Published: Jul. 2, 2026 3:32 a.m. GMT+8

00:00

00:00/00:00

Listen to this article 1x

A roll-on/roll-off vessel loads vehicles for export at a berth in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, on July 1, 2026. Photo: VCG

China’s auto exports are expected to approach 10 million vehicles in 2026, up from 7.1 million in 2025, according to an annual global automotive market outlook released June 30 by consulting firm AlixPartners.

The projected surge highlights a strategic shift among Chinese automakers, which are accelerating overseas expansion as growth in the domestic market slows. Their ambitions increasingly go beyond exports, with companies seeking to build local manufacturing capacity and deeper regional footprints.

You've accessed an article available only to subscribers

Subscribe today for just $.99.

VIEW OPTIONS

Unlock exclusive discounts with a Caixin group subscription — ideal for teams and organizations.

Save an extra $50. Introductory offer for new readers. Subscribe now.

Share this article

Open WeChat and scan the QR code

DIGEST HUB

Digest Hub

Back

Explore the story in 30 seconds

China's auto exports forecast to reach 10 million vehicles in 2026, up from 7.1 million in 2025.
Chinese brands expected to capture 10% of European market in 2025, rising to 16% by 2030.
Overseas production capacity projected to hit 3 million vehicles by 2030, with Chery and BYD expanding locally.

AI generated, for reference only

Who’s Who

AlixPartners: AlixPartners, a consulting firm, forecasts China's auto exports will approach 10 million vehicles in 2026, up from 7.1 million in 2025. It expects Chinese brands to capture 10% of the European market (including Russia) in 2025, rising to 16% by 2030. The firm also notes Europe has about 2.5 million units of idle capacity, and Chinese overseas production capacity may reach 3 million by 2030. Stephen Dyer is Asia-Pacific head of automotive consulting.

AI generated, for reference only

What Happened When

As of November 2024：: Chery Automobile and EV Motors joint venture rolled out its first vehicle from the reopened Nissan factory in Spain.

2025：: Chinese brands captured 10% of the European market, including Russia; SAIC registrations in the EU rose over 30% year-on-year to 211,000 vehicles (1.9% market share); BYD registrations jumped over 200% to 128,000 vehicles (1.2% market share).

First five months of 2026：: SAIC and BYD both increased their EU market shares to 2.1%, surpassing Suzuki and Mazda.

May 2026：: Stellantis announced plans to deepen partnership with Zhejiang Leapmotor to produce vehicles locally in Spain, and to form a European JV with Dongfeng Motor to sell Voyah models, potentially producing BEVs at a Stellantis plant in Rennes, France.

June 30, 2026：: AlixPartners released an annual global automotive market outlook projecting China's auto exports to reach 7.1 million in 2025 and approach 10 million in 2026.

AI generated, for reference only