1. [para. 1][para. 2][para. 5] The ultimate success of AI companies and justification for their surging valuations depend on delivering practical enterprise-facing applications, according to Bain Capital's Jonathan Jia Zhu [para. 1]. This is shifting global capital focus from AI infrastructure to the application layer, where long-term winners are expected to emerge [para. 2]. While the "Magnificent Seven" dominated markets in 2024 and 2025, their stock price growth has slowed significantly in 2026, redirecting investors to unlisted AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic. Zhu cautioned that their high valuations, driven by rapid growth and competitive edges, might not form stable long-term expectations [para. 5].
2. [para. 3][para. 4][para. 6][para. 7] So far in 2026, valuations across the AI supply chain have increased across the board [para. 3]. OpenAI and Anthropic have reached $1 trillion valuations, while Nvidia and SpaceX briefly hit $4 trillion and $2 trillion in market capitalizations, respectively [para. 3]. Investors are shifting away from traditional valuation methods for these high-growth companies, now using annualized recurring revenue (ARR). OpenAI's ARR grew threefold each year from $2 billion to over $20 billion, and Anthropic's grew more than tenfold annually [para. 6]. Zhu noted this rare ARR growth provides a solid valuation basis compared to the user traffic metrics of the internet bubble era [para. 7]. As AI companies mature, metrics shift toward cash flow, EBITDA, net profit, and free cash flow [para. 4].
3. [para. 8][para. 9][para. 10][para. 11][para. 12][para. 13] "Growing investor interest in the AI supply chain" is creating new opportunities, particularly as model developers OpenAI and Anthropic pivot toward enterprise-facing businesses [para. 8][para. 9]. Bain Capital and TPG invested in OpenAI's Deployment subsidiary, reflecting how AI competition is extending to enterprise-level applications requiring specific industry expertise [para. 10]. Bain has also invested deeply in AI infrastructure, backing memory chipmaker Kioxia—whose stock jumped 350% driven by computing demand—alongside data center operator Chindata and optical module maker Coherent [para. 11][para. 12]. The benefits of the AI boom have fueled stock market gains globally, driving semiconductor and supply chain rallies in South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan [para. 13].
4. [para. 14][para. 15][para. 16][para. 17] Zhu firmly stated "AI applications are paramount," arguing that while capital currently spans the entire supply chain, the most valuable companies will ultimately emerge in the application layer [para. 14][para. 15]. Drawing a parallel to internet history, the future of foundation model developers hinges on their ability to commercialize their technology for business [para. 16]. Leading developer Anthropic is already generating significant enterprise-service revenue, demonstrating both platform and application attributes, while many new application tracks await exploration by startups [para. 17].
5. [para. 18][para. 19] The ability of enterprises to put AI into practical use is a major consideration for institutional investors. All companies in Bain Capital's portfolio are exploring AI to empower their businesses and improve operational efficiency [para. 18]. Looking ahead, the development of AI will also require physical hardware, an area where Zhu noted China holds a clear advantage, particularly in robotics and medical AI applications [para. 19].
AI generated, for reference only
Sign in with Google
Sign in with Facebook
Sign in with 财新