Tech Monopolies Could Blunt AI’s Economic Gains, Warns Nobel Laureate Aghion

Nobel-winning economist Philippe Aghion said AI could lift annual productivity growth by more than 1 percentage point over the next decade, but warned that its economic gains could be blunted if governments fail to curb market concentration.

Aghion and his colleagues estimate that automation enabled by AI in the production of goods and services could add 0.68 percentage point a year to productivity growth over 10 years. Factoring in AI’s contribution to creativity and knowledge production could add at least another 0.4 percentage point annually, he said at the 2026 Inclusion Conference on the Bund in Shanghai on Thursday.