1. A contract primary school teacher in Guangzhou’s Huangpu district, Zhang Yue, was dismissed despite an unexpired contract, as the school cited declining enrollment. His case illustrates how falling births are reducing student numbers and forcing teacher cuts, a trend now spreading to major cities like Guangzhou. [para. 1][para. 2][para. 3]
2. Since July, contract teachers in Huangpu, Haizhu, Panyu, and Huadu have reported terminated contracts or non-renewals. Guangzhou’s births peaked at 201,000 in 2017, prompting recruitment drives in 2021; over 2,000 non-staff teachers were hired that summer. Huangpu recruited 2,482 contract teachers from 2021 to 2023, with first-grade classes reaching a record 521 in 2023 before declining. [para. 4][para. 6][para. 7][para. 8][para. 9]
3. Contract teachers typically have one-year contracts and little job security. Chen Feng, who led students to competition awards and achieved above-average exam scores, still received a termination notice. A colleague with three years of service was told just before summer break that finances prevented renewal; both received one month’s salary as compensation. Chen estimated eight colleagues were dismissed or not renewed. [para. 11][para. 12][para. 13][para. 14]
4. Some middle-school contract teachers have also been dismissed, but enrollment is still rising in many districts. Panyu district plans to recruit 36 contract teachers for the first half of 2026, with 31 at high schools and five at junior highs. Guangzhou projects junior-high enrollment to rise until a 2029 peak, and is exploring a "tidal" system for flexible capacity allocation. [para. 15][para. 16][para. 17]
5. Xiong Bingqi of the 21st Century Education Research Institute said many regions are experiencing preschool and primary enrollment declines. Governments are pausing recruitment, shifting primary teachers to higher grades or admin roles, and recalculating staffing needs. Temporary and contract teachers, heavily used during rising enrollment, are often the first to lose their jobs. [para. 18][para. 19][para. 20]
6. Governments generally have three options: retraining teachers, dismissing temporary staff, or moving workers outside education. Retraining primary teachers for higher grades has limits, as secondary schools cannot absorb all. The path to permanent positions for contract teachers is narrowing as districts suspend recruitment and reduce staffing plans. [para. 21][para. 22][para. 23][para. 24][para. 25]
7. Dismissal timing is arduous; notices often arrive in July or August when hiring announcements are already closed. Substitute teacher Sun Fang cited cases where teachers are told they can stay but are dismissed after classes begin, leaving them without compensation. Rehired teachers face annual contracts, delays in finalization, third-party agencies, and missed social-security contributions. [para. 26][para. 27][para. 28][para. 29][para. 30]
8. Contract teachers earn less than permanent staff, lacking performance bonuses, holiday benefits, and break pay, yet they are often assigned additional work during workload increases. [para. 31]
9. New graduates face significant barriers. Yang Yue, a 2026 graduate in primary-school English education, said many schools explicitly exclude recent graduates, seeking experienced teachers instead. "We have theory and enthusiasm without an opportunity to gain practical experience," she noted. [para. 33][para. 34][para. 35]
10. Xiong warned that demographic pressure will move sequentially through junior-high, high school, and higher education, including private universities. He said the impact could exceed artificial intelligence but has received insufficient attention. He advocates smaller class sizes to improve quality, but no binding policies exist. Halting new hiring for years could create a severe age gap, solving the excess superficially while creating new long-term problems. [para. 36][para. 37][para. 38][para. 39][para. 40][para. 41]
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