1. The Asia New Vision Forum 2026, held in Singapore on September 29-30 under the theme "Disruption Meets Resilience," focused on how Asia's economic and diplomatic maneuverability depends heavily on U.S.-China relations, with Southeast Asian nations seeking to avoid being forced to choose between the two powers [para. 1][para. 4]. Organised by Caixin Global with support from the Singapore government, the forum featured speakers examining strategic choices and measures to preserve economic stability amid geopolitical disruptions [para. 4][para. 5].
2. Yu Tiejun, dean of Peking University's Institute of International and Strategic Studies, warned that the world increasingly resembles the 1930s, with rising populism and nationalism, persistent regional conflicts, major-power competition and weakening international institutions [para. 2]. He stressed the need to find direction "through these stormy waters" so businesses can operate with greater confidence and certainty [para. 3].
3. Yu identified U.S.-China relations—or potentially trilateral ties involving Japan—as the single largest geopolitical factor shaping Asia over the next two to three years [para. 6]. While he gave a positive assessment of recent U.S.-China leader summits, noting frequent meetings, personal rapport and a stated aim of a constructive, strategically stable relationship, he cautioned that strategic competition remains and both sides need guardrails and stronger crisis-management mechanisms [para. 8][para. 9].
4. Joseph Liow Chin Yong, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said AI could prove a more consequential variable than geoeconomic fragmentation, which Yasuto Watanabe of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office identified as the central challenge [para. 7]. Liow noted some U.S. groups are anxious about China's rise potentially surpassing U.S. leadership, and proposed cooperative mechanisms in AI governance and biotechnology, though political considerations often impede such efforts [para. 10][para. 11].
5. Yu acknowledged U.S. advantages in technological innovation, urging China to be neither overly pessimistic nor overly confident and to pursue healthy competition [para. 12]. He warned that excessive securitisation across policy fields and the weaponisation of economic ties benefit no country long-term, as nations inevitably become more interdependent [para. 13].
6. Regarding China's global strategy, Yu said Beijing remains focused on domestic priorities and seeks a favourable international environment for stability and development [para. 14]. China has proposed four global initiatives—on development, security, civilisation and governance—and hopes to serve as "a stabilizing force" amid geopolitical turbulence, particularly as the U.S. and Russia are deeply involved in regional conflicts [para. 15][para. 16].
7. On Southeast Asia, Liow said countries are pursuing dialogue, neutrality and hedging strategies, and ASEAN should continue regional integration despite divergent national circumstances [para. 17][para. 18]. While ASEAN members have different interests and growth performances, they share one objective: avoiding being compelled to take sides between major powers, preserving autonomy through deeper internal solidarity and integration [para. 19][para. 20].
8. Liow clarified that strategic autonomy for smaller countries does not mean independence from major powers, but rather managing dependencies so they do not become vulnerabilities—by offering partners enough value that cooperation serves their interests while reducing incentives for coercion [para. 21][para. 22]. Watanabe added that the region's key attribute is flexibility, with ASEAN+3 needing fiscal and monetary resources, economic surveillance, policy coordination and regional financial safety nets to respond to recurring shocks and manage crises [para. 23][para. 25][para. 26].
9. On the Middle East, Liow predicted continued low-intensity, intermittent conflict due to deep mistrust—not just between Iran and Gulf states or Israel, but among Arab countries and between Washington and its Arab allies [para. 27]. He noted Israel is becoming increasingly isolated internationally, with mounting concern it is acting without restraint, prompting Arab states to seek Iran's presence as a counterweight [para. 28][para. 29].
10. Yu addressed India's continued importance as a BRICS, G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation member, with foreign policy stressing strategic independence and multipolarity [para. 30]. He highlighted substantial China-India common ground on international order issues and said the visit of China's leader to India for a BRICS summit this month sent a positive signal about rebuilding bilateral relations [para. 31].
AI generated, for reference only
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