1. The average transaction price for existing homes in Shenzhen returned to a downward trend in October, as a new government mortgage subsidy policy fueled a surge in sales of lower-priced properties [para. 1], reshaping buyer behavior and accelerating a broader trend of sellers making deep price cuts to exit a prolonged property slump [para. 2].
2. Caixin's sources indicated that the average price reached a one-year high of about 52,700 yuan ($7,891) per square meter in September, up 2.4% from August and 0.6% year-on-year; since the start of October, it dropped about 0.9% to around 48,000 yuan per square meter [para. 3].
3. Shenzhen Leyoujia Research Center data showed a similar trend: September's average price at its branches was about 58,300 yuan per square meter, up 0.9% month-on-month, falling by Oct. 20 to roughly 57,100 yuan, a 2.1% decline from September [para. 4].
4. A Shenzhen real estate agency executive attributed the brief September rebound to structural factors: high-premium land sales in June in areas like Qianhai Guiwan, Nanshan Science and Technology Park, and Baoan district boosted buyer confidence [para. 5], while Tencent's "Penguin Island" headquarters in Baoan's Dachan Bay added housing demand as employees relocated, increasing the proportion of higher-priced transactions [para. 6].
5. The market shifted after a Sept. 29 joint notice by the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration: buyers of first homes with new commercial mortgages on or after Oct. 1 receive a 1 percentage point annualized fiscal interest subsidy for up to five years, applying to homes no larger than 120 square meters and priced no more than 1.5 million yuan, with a maximum subsidized loan of 1 million yuan per household [para. 7].
6. Following the policy rollout, transactions of existing homes priced under 1.5 million yuan accelerated, pulling down the overall average price; these lower-priced homes accounted for 21.5% of total sales from Oct. 1-19, up 1.3 percentage points from September, according to the Shenzhen Beike Research Institute [para. 8].
7. In the second week of October, signing volumes for existing homes across Beike branches in Shenzhen grew 11% week-on-week to a five-month high, while signings for homes under 1.5 million yuan jumped 26%. The share of homes sold for 2-3 million yuan rose to 26.9% from 23.6% in September, but the share of homes over 10 million yuan shrank to 3.9%, a drop of 1.5 percentage points [para. 9].
8. The agency executive expected the overall average transaction price to decline even further for the rest of October as subsidy effects and rising transactions of lower-priced existing homes continue [para. 10].
9. Beyond structural shifts, actual prices across all tiers are still falling due to high inventory: Leyoujia data showed existing-home listings increased slightly every week since September, and in the week ending Oct. 18 listings were up 2.5% compared with the first week of September, indicating elevated supply and harder sales [para. 11].
10. Highlighting market distress, the executive revealed that about 4% of the company's existing home transactions since January involved properties in negative equity; many eager sellers are making larger price concessions to exit quickly during the current window of rebounding transaction volume [para. 12].
11. Existing home sales in Shenzhen have shown signs of stabilizing in 2026: first-nine-month transactions rose 4.4% year-on-year to about 53,100 units. After a 2021 downturn that saw sales plummet 53.9% to 47,000 units, the market contracted for two years before recovering to 64,000 transactions in 2024 and 68,000 in 2025 [para. 13].
AI generated, for reference only
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