1. China's wind power industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2028, shifting from rapid capacity expansion to prioritizing effective grid integration and power consumption, according to Cao Zhigang, president of Goldwind Science & Technology, the world's largest wind turbine maker. [para. 1][para. 2]
2. China's installed wind capacity has more than doubled since 2020, reaching 690 gigawatts (GW) by the end of July, accounting for 16.9% of the country's total generating capacity, up from 281 GW at the end of 2020. [para. 3]
3. China's renewable-energy plan through 2030 sets targets for "capacity credit," which measures how much reliable output wind and solar can provide when needed. The targets are about 11% for wind power and 6% for solar by 2030. However, Goldwind's simulations indicate most wind farms would currently have capacity credits of less than 3% without energy storage. [para. 4][para. 5]
4. Raising the capacity credit figure requires both investment in storage and changes to electricity-market rules. Cao expressed concern about making capacity credit another round of mandatory storage requirements, noting that requiring every project to add batteries without creating corresponding market revenue sources could discourage renewable investment. [para. 6][para. 7]
5. Cao pointed to markets like Australia as examples, where projects can earn higher returns for providing dependable electricity during grid stress. Goldwind has a project there where heavier energy storage investment improved expected returns because the project sells more valuable power during system stress times. [para. 8]
6. China is already pushing renewables deeper into power markets. Reforms introduced in 2025 moved wind and solar toward market-based electricity pricing, meaning their returns increasingly depend on when they generate rather than simply how much electricity they produce. [para. 9]
7. This shift could change turbine design and operation. Turbines were previously controlled mainly by wind conditions; in the future, operators will also need to consider power demand and electricity prices. Manufacturers have spent years building larger machines with wider rotor-swept areas due to intense competition, but lower turbine prices haven't always meant better economics for wind farms. Future models will need to be designed more closely around local wind conditions, grid requirements, and project returns. [para. 10][para. 11][para. 12]
8. Grid participation could also change maintenance practices. Minor equipment problems that once prompted immediate shutdowns may need to be temporarily tolerated, within safety limits, so turbines can continue generating during periods of high demand or prices. [para. 13]
9. The broader challenge is balancing intermittent renewable generation with electricity demand. Cao stated that flexible consumers could become increasingly valuable, suggesting wind and solar projects could be paired with energy-intensive processes such as producing hydrogen, ammonia, or methanol, whose electricity consumption can be adjusted based on renewable output. [para. 14][para. 15]
10. Goldwind has begun trial production at a green-methanol project in Inner Mongolia, designed to coordinate wind and solar generation with hydrogen and methanol production rather than relying entirely on the external grid. The project has three phases with total capacity of 1.45 million metric tons per year, including 250,000 tons in the first phase. Goldwind has signed long-term supply agreements for 500,000 tons with shipping giant Maersk and 250,000 tons with Hapag-Lloyd. [para. 16][para. 17]
11. Goldwind plans to increase investment in green fuels during China's next five-year planning period, positioning them alongside wind power and energy storage as one of the company's three main businesses. [para. 18]
12. Green fuels remain economically challenging. Production costs are still higher than conventional fossil-based alternatives, and projects face technical difficulties coordinating variable renewable power with chemical plants that require more stable operating conditions. Goldwind's Inner Mongolia project has progressed more slowly than expected because some processes had to be scaled from demonstration equipment to industrial production. The project's hydrogen-production load totals about 760 megawatts, with roughly 700 megawatts adjustable. The company hopes the project will eventually provide grid-balancing services and earn additional revenue from electricity markets starting around 2027 or 2028. [para. 19][para. 20]
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