TECH

MiniMax Shares Fall Below IPO Price Amid AI Sector Sell-Off

Published: Oct. 23, 2026 12:03 a.m. GMT+8

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MiniMax shares peaked at HK$1,330 on March 18 and have since fallen about 88%. Photo: VCG

Shares of Chinese artificial intelligence developer MiniMax fell below their Hong Kong initial public offering price on Thursday, extending a retreat from their March peak amid intensifying competition over model pricing and a broader technology sell-off.

The decline comes as investors scrutinize the sustainability of AI spending and the pace of flagship model updates by Chinese developers, which face pressure from new releases and price cuts by U.S. rivals.

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MiniMax shares fell 88% from HK$1,330 March peak to HK$160.7, below IPO price, amid AI pricing competition.
No new flagship text model in 4+ months after M3; M3.1 Flash cut usage costs by 70%.
H1 revenue surged 283% to $117M, but gross margin at 17.9% trails rival Zhipu AI's 26.4%.

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Who’s Who

MiniMax: MiniMax, a Chinese AI developer, saw shares fall 88% from their March peak to HK$160.7, below its Jan. 9 IPO price. It raised net proceeds of HK$4.6 billion. H1 revenue surged 283.1% to $117 million, with a narrowed loss of $358 million. CEO Yan Junjie targets margin improvement via the cost-efficient M3.1 Flash model. Analysts are divided, with targets ranging from HK$330 to HK$900.

Zhipu AI: Zhipu AI is a Chinese AI developer that competes with MiniMax. Its shares fell 7.1% recently, about 85% below their June high. It has a gross margin of 26.4% and reported $1.6 billion in annualized recurring revenue in August. Its market cap was roughly 18 times that revenue.

DeepSeek: Based on the article, DeepSeek is a Chinese AI developer and a domestic rival to MiniMax. It released major updates in the third quarter, alongside Zhipu AI and Moonshot AI, intensifying competition in model pricing and development. No other specific details about DeepSeek are provided in the article.

Moonshot AI: Moonshot AI is a Chinese AI developer that released major updates in Q3 2024. It competes with MiniMax, Zhipu AI, and DeepSeek in the Chinese AI market, facing pricing pressure from U.S. rivals like OpenAI and Google. The article mentions it as a domestic competitor but provides no financial details about the company.

OpenAI: Based on the article, OpenAI, along with Anthropic and Google, has continued introducing new models and lowering prices since September, intensifying competitive pressure on Chinese AI developers like MiniMax in the global market.

Anthropic: Based on the article, Anthropic is a U.S. AI rival that has continued introducing models and lowering prices since September. The article cites its estimated annualized recurring revenue of $69 billion (as of July) and a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion (per Reuters in October), giving it a valuation multiple of roughly 22 to 29 times revenue.

Google: According to the article, Google has continued introducing new AI models and lowering prices since September, intensifying competition for Chinese developers like MiniMax. This pressure contributes to pricing cuts and investor scrutiny in the AI sector.

JPMorgan: According to the article, JPMorgan commented on MiniMax's decision to halve its application programming interface (API) fees for its M3 text model. The bank stated that this price cut reflected limited market acceptance of MiniMax's original premium pricing strategy.

Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating on Chinese AI developer MiniMax, with a HK$900 price target, citing the competitiveness of its M3.1 Flash model. This bullish stance contrasts with Goldman Sachs' buy rating (HK$760) and HSBC's neutral rating (HK$330), reflecting differentiated views on MiniMax's valuation and market position.

Goldman Sachs: According to the article, Goldman Sachs assigned a buy rating on Chinese AI developer MiniMax with a price target of HK$760, as cited in the October 2024 report. This contrasts with Morgan Stanley's overweight rating (HK$900 target) and HSBC's neutral stance (HK$330 target).

HSBC: According to the article, HSBC rated Chinese AI developer MiniMax's stock as "neutral" with a price target of HK$330. This assessment contrasts with Morgan Stanley's overweight rating (HK$900 target) and Goldman Sachs' buy rating (HK$760 target), reflecting HSBC's more cautious outlook on the company's valuation.

GF Securities: GF Securities Co. Ltd. is a Chinese financial firm. In the article, Kuang Shi, its chief media and internet analyst, commented that October's tech-stock decline was driven by capital flows and sentiment, not fundamentals, amid reassessments of AI investment sustainability.

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