Local Gov'ts Bet Big on Investment Projects
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(Beijing) – Still grappling with a hangover from the central government's 4 trillion yuan spending spree, local governments across China are pressing ahead with new investment plans.
In late August, the government of Guangdong Province said it would strengthen the exploitation of oceanic resources, with 177 projects designed to attract more than 1 trillion yuan in investment over the next five years. This comes only one month after the province started a campaign to enlist private investors for projects worth 235 billion yuan.
Vowing to put the brakes on declining investment, the province also implemented 19 measures to enhance production in a variety of fields, including a chronically oversupplied steel market. Niu Li, a researcher for the State Information Center, a government think tank, said steel manufacturers were earning less than 2 yuan per ton.
Excess capacity has become a severe problem in many industries, which means further stimulus of output was unlikely to be as rewarding as in 2009, he said.
Since July, at least 13 provinces and cities have announced investment plans worth more than 10 trillion yuan over the next few years. This is a significant increase from the central government's 2009 package, which was a response to the global financial crisis.
Chongqing plans to spend 1.5 trillion yuan in the next five years to develop dozens of new industrial clusters, and Xi'an is going to add nine subway routes to its six lines. The southwestern province of Guizhou is aiming higher, pledging to spend 3 trillion yuan over the next decade to promote itself as a tourist haven.
There is a consensus among scholars and economists that these investments, made by regional administrations seeking to outdo one another, will exacerbate local governments' debts, which were already at 10.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2010. This year alone, 1.8 trillion yuan is scheduled to be repaid.
Zhao Xiao, economics professor at Beijing University of Technology, said pursuing huge investment plans now would not only worsen the country's inventory problem, but limit the growth potential of future investments.
Fuzzy Funding
However, local government officials take another view. Changsha, the capital of Hunan Province, is going forward with an investment scheme worth more than 800 billion yuan, an increase of 200 billion yuan from its stimulus plan in 2009.
The new investment is, a city budget officer says, crucial to jumping-starting the local economy and paying off the government's debt.
The city's fiscal revenue in the first six months of this year was 47.2 billion yuan, data from the office shows. However, the city owed creditors, mainly banks, 81.2 billion yuan at the end of last year.
Repayments are guaranteed by the government's tax revenue, profits from land sales and operating incomes from state-owned enterprises, the city budget officer said. "If there is still a shortfall, some financing platform companies can have their debts rolled over."
But this worry-free attitude does not mean the government has all the money it needs. In fact, despite government efforts, some projects were still being negotiated and the investments were uncertain, the budget officer said.
This may be true across the nation. UBS chief economist Wang Tao says local government investment plans are fuzzy when it comes to important details, such as where the money would come from and who should oversee the investment. Because of common fund shortages, most local governments are bound to fall short of their goals, she said.
Indeed, fiscal revenues in China are growing much more slowly in the first half of the year, at 12.2 percent year on year, compared with 31.2 percent in the same period of 2011. Meanwhile, expenditures have shot up, rising by 21.3 percent in the first six months year on year.
There is no doubt that governments need to act in the face of the economic
slowdown, but "it would be unnecessary and impractical to use another massive
stimulus," Gao Zhanjun, managing director of CITIC Securities, said.
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