China Can’t Open Up Like U.S. Even With Vaccinations, Official Says

(Bloomberg) — China can’t begin to ease restrictions like the U.S even after inoculating a high level of its population because it has no way of analyzing how well its vaccines are working in its largely Covid-free population, according to a top health official.

Despite treating more than 40% of its citizens with at least one dose of vaccine, China “has some unique difficulties” and is unable to match America’s ability to examine vaccine effectiveness in real time as cases and deaths ebb, said Feng Zijian, the deputy director General of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

China has largely eliminated infections — only one Covid-19 related fatality has occurred in the past 13 months — and vaccinations have no immediate impact.

“If we try to open even when 60% or 80% of the population is vaccinated, it could still lead to a severe outbreak,” Feng said Thursday at a conference in the eastern city of Qingdao. “It largely depends on the technical considerations, societal consensus and political concerns.”

Though he did not elaborate on what he meant by technical considerations, it’s unknown whether China’s vaccines can prevent transmission as well as serious sickness. Messenger RNA shots made by Pfizer Inc., BioNTech SE and Moderna Inc. can do both, diminishing outbreaks in the U.S., Israel and other places.

Feng’s comment signals that China intends to remain isolated even as other major economies race to open up following large-scale vaccination efforts. After its own lackluster start dogged by hesitancy and some supply shortages, China has now deployed more than 704 million shots, putting the country’s 1.4 billion people on track for herd immunity territory within a few months.

‘Long Way’

However, officials have no intention of shifting away from China’s Covid playbook of closed borders, strict quarantine for foreign arrivals and aggressive lockdowns when flare-ups occur. In contrast, many countries with similar or even lower levels of vaccination have started rolling back restrictions, reviving travel and lifting mask mandates, accepting that Covid-19 is endemic as long as most people won’t get seriously ill thanks to vaccination.

China’s only goal right now is to vaccinate all its citizens, Feng said. “We haven’t figured out or decided at what rate of vaccination we can adjust containment measures,” he said.

Those considerations may change as more Chinese vaccines become available. Li Yunchun, the chief executive officer of Walvax Biotechnology Co., told Bloomberg Thursday he expects the company’s mRNA shot to be as effective as the ones already deployed in Western nations. That vaccine will undergo Phase 3 clinical trials in more than seven countries in South America, Southeast Asia, South Asia and Central Asia, he said.

Existing shots being used in China “still have a long way to go,” in terms of proving their long-term effectiveness at controlling the disease, said Zhang Wenhong, director of infectious diseases at Shanghai Huashan Hospital and an adviser to China’s government on Covid-19.

“I’m hoping China could conditionally resume travel with some countries, but it depends on the vaccination pace,” Zhang said. “If we do not vaccinate fast enough, we’d be unwilling to open up.”

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