China’s Exports May Recover in Second Half, Economists Predict

What’s new: China’s exports are expected to have a slow start this year and recover in the second half, several economists said at a recent forum.

Annual export growth in 2023 is expected to be moderate but better than expected at the end of 2022, with the pressure mainly in the first quarter, Guo Lei, chief economist at GF Securities, said Wednesday at a seminar held by China Macroeconomic Forum.

China’s exports still face challenges amid global economic uncertainty and continuing negative impact of the pandemic on trade, economists said.

The implementation of supportive real estate policies and economic stimulus measures are expected to boost the growth of domestic demand, which will expand the market for imports, said Li Zhan, chief economist at China Merchants Fund Management Co. Ltd.

The background: Export growth was robust for most of 2022, providing some support for the world’s second-largest economy as it was hit by a housing market slump and weak consumer demand.

China’s exports fell 9.9% in December compared with a year earlier, while exports in the whole of 2022 rose 7%, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

While authorities have taken some measures to support exports — including sending officials on chartered flights to meet overseas clients — net exports will continue to be a concern this year, most likely accounting for either a smaller portion of growth or even becoming a drag, economists estimated.

China’s trade figures for January and February will be released next month.

Quick Takes are condensed versions of China-related stories for fast news you can use. To read the full story in Chinese, click here.

Contact reporter Denise Jia (huijuanjia@caixin.com) and editor Bob Simison (bob.simison@caixin.com)

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