Wang Tao: UBS Downgrades China 2023 GDP Forecast

China’s economic growth has decelerated since April as the property downturn deepened. The government’s policy support has arguably been lower than what was indicated earlier in the year, and less than we expected. While the July Politburo meeting signaled more macro and property policy support, there has been no announcement of meaningful fiscal spending and property easing has been relatively piecemeal and modest. We now foresee a deeper and longer property downturn, revising our 2023 property starts down from a mid-single-digit decline to a contraction of 25% in 2023, and real estate investment from flat to about a 10% fall.

Wang Tao is the head of Asia economics and chief China economist of UBS Investment Bank.
- 1Cover Story: A Recipe for Satisfaction After Diners Express Doubts Over Pre-Cooked Meals
- 2Exclusive: China to Create Department to Tackle Trillions in Local Government Debt
- 3China Revises Maritime Law, Paving Way for Retaliation Against U.S. Fee Hikes
- 4Exclusive: Alleged Chinese Mastermind Behind Massive Bitcoin Money Laundering Stands Trial in U.K.
- 5Beijing Warns S&P Global’s China Unit Amid Push to Curb Inflated Credit Ratings
- 1Power To The People: Pintec Serves A Booming Consumer Class
- 2Largest hotel group in Europe accepts UnionPay
- 3UnionPay mobile QuickPass debuts in Hong Kong
- 4UnionPay International launches premium catering privilege U Dining Collection
- 5UnionPay International’s U Plan has covered over 1600 stores overseas