Wang Tao: UBS Downgrades China 2023 GDP Forecast

China’s economic growth has decelerated since April as the property downturn deepened. The government’s policy support has arguably been lower than what was indicated earlier in the year, and less than we expected. While the July Politburo meeting signaled more macro and property policy support, there has been no announcement of meaningful fiscal spending and property easing has been relatively piecemeal and modest. We now foresee a deeper and longer property downturn, revising our 2023 property starts down from a mid-single-digit decline to a contraction of 25% in 2023, and real estate investment from flat to about a 10% fall.